In the second round of the week, the blue dollar It is sold this Tuesday with a rise, to reach $1,235 in the caves of downtown Buenos Aires. In the stock market segment, the dollar counted with settlement is trading at $1,184; while the MEP dollar operates at $1,138.
The Argentine economy continues to navigate turbulent waters, with the exchange issue as one of the main focuses of attention. Despite some encouraging indicators, such as a slowdown in inflation and a slight rebound in international reserves, analysts warn that the situation remains fragile and that significant challenges remain.
On the one hand, the Banco Central It has managed to accumulate reserves in the official market, thanks in part to the liquidation of the agricultural sector and the entry of dollars from money laundering. However, net reserves are still in negative territory and exchange controls remain a fundamental tool to contain the demand for foreign currency.
The experts consulted agree that the normalization of external accounts It is the main challenge facing the Argentine government. The persistence of exchange controls, although necessary to avoid further depreciation of the peso, generates uncertainty and discourages investment.
The appreciation of real exchange rate and the expectation of lower inflation have generated a certain calm in the exchange market. However, analysts warn that this situation could be reversed if external shocks materialize or if internal imbalances occur.
In this context, the government’s decision to maintain or eliminate exchange controls is presented as a complex dilemma. On the one hand, its elimination could generate a depreciation of the peso and an increase in the inflation in the short term. On the other hand, the persistence of these controls could discourage investment and generate greater dollarization of the economy.
What happens with exchange peace
According to the Grupo SBS brokerage company, disinflation continues to be the government’s main priority, and it will do everything possible to achieve it, even at the expense of other objectives, highlighting the position of Net Reserves, which remains negative.
In any case, even with this red, they indicated that the exchange calm still continues in alternative dollars and dollar futures. In addition, they highlighted that the impressive rise in private deposits in dollars due to laundering (which was widespread) may imply, if a good part of those dollars are captured (something that has not yet completely happened), an increase in Gross Reserves that could give some ” ammunition” to BCRA to contain possible pressures if necessary.
“However, we reiterate that the situation remains delicate because the normalization of the external accountswhich we believe is the government’s most important challenge between now and the coming months. Exchange controls remain very strong despite the fact that some appropriate measures have been taken (2 quotas for access to the MULC for importers, lower COUNTRY Tax, tariff reductions, some regulatory flexibilities) and we believe that the government does not eliminate them due to fear due to the effect on inflation that it could have in the short term,” they warned.
Although they recognized that this could occur (the stock of monetary aggregates + debt in local currency is high despite being much lower than the 2017 highs and the stock of Net Reserves is negative), they continue to think that this would have more positive than negative effects given the strong signal towards normalization that the removal of these controls would imply.
However, they highlighted that the main challenge comes from the external accounts, no important flows in sight to reinforce Net Reserves despite repo rumors. To this will be added in 2025 the challenge of public accounts, with a procyclical fiscal rule.
Why is the BCRA surprising by buying?
For Personal Investment Portfolio, the BCRA continues to extend its positive streak in the official market and its good performance is surprising in a context in which those importers who deferred the nationalization of the merchandise would have begun to access the MULC until the reduction of the COUNTRY tax became effective (as of September 3). .
However, they observed that this was not harmless for the BCRA, given that its shopping pace It slowed significantly from $115 million on October 2 (three-day moving average) to $31 million.
“Why do you continue buying? The jump in private demand is still limited. Although practically It doubled from $60 million in October to $117 million yesterday (three-day moving average), still remains well below the peaks of over $300 million reached during July. It also contributes positively that supply remains relatively high. “Here it helps that the liquidation of agriculture continues to push against its seasonality,” they indicated.
Thanks to the good harvest of the BCRA in the MULChighlighted that net reserves are improving, detailing that they rose US$1,126 million since September 16 from an estimated -US$7,914 million to -US$6,788 million, which would be explained mainly by the purchases by the monetary authority in that period.
The unknown persists regarding exchange controls
From Grupo SBS they highlighted that, in September, the BCRA managed to record another month of purchases in the MULC, placing itself in surplus for the second consecutive month. And they highlighted that the protagonists of the month were private deposits in dollars. In a context of money laundering, these rose more than US$12,000 since the end of July 2024, approaching the highs of August 2019.
However, they warned that the challenges in the exchange rate plan “They are far from being resolved” and they considered them to be the biggest unknown going forward, given that the Real Exchange Rate continues to appreciate, Net Reserves continue in negative territory and there is no news regarding the removal of exchange controls.
“In relation to the latter, the President Mile confirmed that these would be lifted once “the inflation that the macroeconomic program has is 0″ (which would be approx. 1.5% m/m). Despite the fact that the international inflation implicit in Milei’s statements is much lower than current, the objective still seems far away, especially considering the factors mentioned in the previous section. Likewise, both the negative level of RRNN and the significant stock of pesos (monetary aggregates + ARS debt) limit the government’s propensity to remove controls,” they noted.
Looking ahead, Grupo SBS stated that external accounts will be the main focus of attention and that they are waiting to see if the increase in private deposits in dollars finally fits into the BCRA and they begin to increase the Gross Reserves, given that, although they do not increase RRNN, they would give the monetary authority some room for maneuver in situations of tension in the exchange market.
“However, we continue to think that the best thing would be to advance in a removal of change controls despite the immediate pass through that this could cause given that it would be the strongest signal towards normalization,” they noted.
How much is the blue dollar trading at today?
The blue dollar is located at $1,235 for sale and $1,205 for purchase.
How financial dollars operate
In the stock market segment, the dollar counted with settlement is trading at $1,181; while the MEP dollar operates at $1,144.
What is the price of the official dollar
The price of the retail dollar of Banco Nación starts at $1000.
The wholesale dollar is trading at an average of $980.
For its part, the solidarity dollar and card dollar are located at $1,600.
The exchange gap
Finally, the exchange gap between the wholesale dollar and the different exchange rates is as follows:
• Blue: 21%
• CCL: 20%
• MEP: 17%