The blue dollar takes a new leap and goes above $1,200: why does it continue to rise?

The blue dollar takes a new leap and goes above $1,200: why does it continue to rise?
The blue dollar takes a new leap and goes above $1,200: why does it continue to rise?

The price of the blue dollar continues to rise. This Tuesday comes $1,120, a jump of 30 pesos in a few minutes. With this the blue increased 170 pesos so far in May, an advance of 15% well above the estimated inflation for the month, around 5%.

With this rebound, the blue dollar regains ground after three months of calm that had left it behind inflation and the official dollar. Until May 2nd, the informal had barely risen 4% in the year, against an inflation of 65% and a jump in the official exchange rate of 9%.

Thus, the gap stretches again and reaches 36%after having remained at 20% for ten weeks.

Why is the blue dollar rising?

For analysts, the main reason behind the rebound in informal is linked to the lowering of the rate by the Central Bank. Last week, when it was announced that inflation had returned to single digits in April with a record of 8.8%, the monetary authority lowered the market reference rates to 40% annually.

This fifth drop in the rate so far this year It took away all appeal from placements in pesos, which now cannot reach a monthly return of 3%, so they continue to lose despite the fact that inflation is deflating.

With this, the blue regains its attractiveness and so do the financial dollars. Cash with liquid rises today 1.3% to $1,158, and the MEP is going to $1,130, after an increase of 2.2%. In the month they rise 6 and 8%, respectively.

In this way, the blue advances faster in May than the other free dollars and consolidates itself as the most expensive of these variantsalthough it is still far from its highest nominal price of the year – the $ 1,250 that it touched in January – and the card dollar, which is in $1,452.

“We believe that the rise in parallel dollars responds to aggressive rate cuts (Money Markets at 2.5% monthly), than to the lack of supply of dollars,” said economist Fernando Marull.

Another reason that pushes alternative dollars upward is that the liquidation of dollars by the field is delayed and for some analysts The “late” dollar does not help the liquidation to normalize.

However, Marull highlights that although yesterday, the volume in the Single and Free Exchange Market (MULC) fell to US$ 218 million, agriculture increased to US$ 140 million and the BCRA bought US$ 126 million.

“With the thick harvest already underway, yesterday the Central Bank’s purchases were almost entirely due to agricultural sales. Until 8/5 it had sold around 31% of the harvest (less than historical records until May), but sales have been visibly accelerating in the last two weeks and in the coming weeks we should continue to see a good volume of agricultural liquidation. Less rain and a higher Chicago price (yesterday it rose to US$459) should improve agricultural sales.”

“In any case, the greatest supply of dollars in the coming weeks due to the thick harvest, combined with the scheme for *the exporting dollar (80/20) should be enough to prevent the parallel dollar from escaping, assuming that “escaping” is above $1,250 today or a gap of 40%”says Marull.

For the economist, “the macro does not support crisis values from last November; like a CCL of $1,900.”

Exporters settle their currencies in the blend dollar, which combines 80% of the official price with 20% of the cash price with liqui. For this reason, in the market they point out that A controlled CCL increase stimulates exporters and it benefits the Government because the settlement grows.

“The exporting dollar rose yesterday to $932; It serves the exporter, taking into account that the Blend dollar has already ate the devaluation and is 26% below November ($1,260)“says Marull.

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