The NEW price of the DOLLAR that investors agree on for the end of the year

He dollar shot up again to the level of $1,300 making the economic plan attract all attention. Despite the fact that expectations were focused on it being a week where the prominence would be in the political sphere, with the possible crowning of the ideas of Liberty through the celebration of the May Pact proposed by the ruling party, after the eventual approval of the Base Law.

However, the political uncertainty led to the exchange rate, while investors once again took refuge in hard currency this week, making increase future dollar contracts by up to 2.5% for the end of the year.

The Argentina of the Milei era seemed to have relaxed its desire to acquire foreign currency, in the midst of an economic context where inflation in a continuous process of deceleration prevails, where there is a strong fiscal anchor linked to the Government’s commitment to maintain the deficit 0 achieving compliance with the goals agreed with the IMF and a BCRA that constantly expands its coffers, until reaching an accumulation of reserves of US$29,060 million.

Although the president’s weekend statements in the Spanish media, and his subsequent comments on local ground, modified the assumptions about the immediate future of the dollar. Especially when his words once again defended the idea of ​​maintaining a 2% crawling peg monthly until the release of the stocks is finalized, which would be “ever closer.” But said exchange rate exodus becomes unrealizable until the domestic monetary authority is finished cleaning up, which is equivalent to being able to accumulate at least between US$15,000 and US$20,000 million.

Future dollar: how contracts varied

In this scenario, the prices of the right to access a US currency at the official exchange rate rose sharply, reaching up to $899 (0.17%) for May and growing by June until $927.5 (0.49%).

For the second half of the year, the contracts for the remaining terms ended in the same direction, advancing to the $962 (0.89%) for Julyuntil $995 (1.17%) for August And till $1,025 (1.38%) for September. Looking ahead to the last quarter, contracts rose to $1,075 (1.9%) for Octoberuntil $1,125 (2.45%) for November And till $1,165 (2.33%) for December.

The greatest variations in the future dollar were for the last months of 2024, where the exit of the stocks could occur

This occurred in the midst of a context in which the price of Dolar blue climbed up touch them $1,300 approaching their nominal historical highs at the end of January, at which time the tension over the lifting of the Omnibus Law in Deputies brought deep volatility to the exchange markets. At the same time, the MEP and CCL They closed yesterday, threatening to overcome the barrier of $1,200, while on the eve they slowed down.

For his part, Javier Casabal, Fixed Income Strategist at ADCAP, said iProfessional that “We do not know what the price of the financial dollar would be in a completely deregulated market. Lifting restrictions today would be taking unnecessary risks that would undermine the two main signs of normalization of the economy: inflation and reserve accumulation“. Which puts on the table rethinking that the value of the free dollar could have upside margin in case it could float without contention and with the participation of massive volumes by important market players such as large companies.

Dollar skyrocket: how the supply of exporters plays

The rebound of the financial dollarsand consequently the need for many economic actors to once again look to Matba-Rofex for an opportunity to obtain dollars for the coming months at a price that is still cheap, according to some economists, could be explained mainly by a lower supply of currency by exporters.

In this regard, PPI mentions to this medium that the theoretical settlement via the CCL It fell from $62 million last Friday to $50 million at the beginning of the week, although in greater perspective it sank from a peak of $91 million on Thursday.

A lower supply of dollars from exporters could explain the rise in financial dollars according to experts

“The lower spread between the peso rate and the daily devaluation rate could have begun to discourage exporters from liquidating. Given a crawling peg set at 2% monthly, the BCRA’s successive rate cuts led to the rate differential being reduced from 159.4 pp. of TEA at the beginning of the Milei administration at 7.3 pp. of TEA when taking as reference the Fixed Term interest. That is, given a lower cost of leverage, exporters could choose to postpone the liquidation and finance themselves in pesos while waiting for the opening of the stocks, although in our opinion the prospect of exit this year is losing strength,” they emphasize.

It should be noted that if the stocks were lifted, many peso holders would like to be able to obtain them at a market value of $890. However, Casabal warns that there is not enough dollars to supply such demand. “And even if there were, the objective is to accumulate reserves, not deaccumulate. At the same time, the resolution that delays payments to importers, which limits access to purchases, which allows the strong absorption of reserves, is still in force,” he emphasizes.

Stocks for longer: how it will impact the future dollar

Getting out of the trap is becoming increasingly necessary for the Government to develop the second part of its economic plan linked to the reactivation of the economy through private investment with the arrival of enormous foreign capital. The work that the current administration is doing to continue keeping its word of consolidating that the accounts are clear and up to date to have a favorable impact on the international level, lowering country risk and accessing the international private credit market prevails. However, it would seem to take more time until the local reputation shows strong signs of economic and political adhesion to the ideas of freedom in support of the ruling party.

Removing exchange restrictions implies eliminating a set of regulations that operate and that are not as easy to remove, as was believed at the beginning of 2024, when the Minister of Economy Luis Caputo assured that the stocks would be lifted yes or yes in the middle of the year or before . “We are closer to getting out of the trap in the sense that The potential demand for dollars that are trapped in remunerated liabilities is reducingbut we believe that still missing. To give a relevant example: so far this year, the COUNTRY tax It raised 0.4% of GDP and explains half of the primary surplus. That is to say, there would have been a financial deficit of approximately -0.2% of GDP,” indicates the ADCAP analyst.

For what is coming in the curve of US currency contracts, Joaquín Arregui, Director of Extensio Finanzas, mentions to iProfesional that They should rise more from November, when the exchange rate could be freed.

“Probably the cable dollar would be around $1,300, which would lead to an escalation of one twenty% extra that if the exchange restrictions are released and if the approach to the release of the stocks is confirmed, it could favor the rise in prices for all terms of future dollar contracts,” concludes Arregui.

 
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