When would the next great global economic crisis happen? | Finance | Economy

When would the next great global economic crisis happen? | Finance | Economy
When would the next great global economic crisis happen? | Finance | Economy

In the year 1875, Samuel Benner, a humble farmer from Ohio, in the United Statesdiscovered a series of patterns that asset prices have followed over the centuries, governed by a series of upward movements followed by falls.

He made this discovery officially known in 1875, the year in which he published his book ‘Benner’s Prophecies on the Evolution of Rises and Falls in Market Prices’, in which he made forecasts about the prices of raw materials.

(You can read: Migrations: improvements in growth and productivity of countries).

Mauricio Rodríguez, asset management leader at the Proteccion severance fundexplained more about this theory on his social networks.

Benner argued that the maximum prices of companies on the stock market tend to follow an annual pattern (8-9-10) that is repeated as a constant, and that for the minimum prices there are two patterns indicating that recessions and depressions tend to alternate.“, said.

Economic crisis

PHOTO: iStock

From his research, he thus developed the so-called Benner graph, a model that allowed predicting fluctuations in the stock market. This is made up of three lines:

– Line A: It represents years of market panics, which occur in a 54-year cycle that alternates every 18, 20 and 16 years.

– Line B: It represents years of prosperity and high prices, which occur every 8, 9 and 10 years. This is the right time to sell stocks and other assets.

– Line C: It represents years of difficulties and low prices, which are the ideal periods to buy shares and other assets, since their value will increase with the market rebound.

(Read: ‘Although the decline in credit continues, the entities’ indicators are adequate.’)

When will the next crisis be?

Taking these guidelines into account, Benner’s graph has helped predict crises in the stock market that have been widely referenced in history, such as the Great Depression, in 1929wave .com crisis, in 2000.

Although Benner was a commodities specialist and not all of his forecasts were accurate, many were surprisingly close to reality, to the point that his theory is still used today as a prediction tool.“Rodríguez added.

(Also: In the 1,000 largest companies, service sector assets fell 3%).

Taking into account this cycle, the next great crisis for the global economy It would be presented in 2026, and would be extended until 2030..

We can surely expect the next major economic crisis starting in 2026 and lasting until around 2030. Obviously, no one has a crystal ball, but this graph has helped us understand past market and economic crises.“, they explain from ‘My own finances’, school specialized in teaching personal finance and investment.

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