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Dollar, fixed term, shares and the 5 keys of the week

From “The keys of the week“We will try to bring them closer Data to take into account in the week that beginsin a few lines and in a concrete way, the main variables that affect the investor. What the market observes and expects for the next 5 days.

1 dollar

  • NATIONAL BANK $934.50 0.43% weekly
  • BLUE $1,420 4.03% weekly
  • MEP $1,396.24 3.58% weekly
  • CCL $1,391.93 55.83 2.66% weekly

Gap with the official dollar

Pressure remains on the financial dollars which rose up to 4% in the week. The gaps are already in the range of 50%, the highest levels of Milei’s administration.

There are no changes in the monetary politicsthe rate is lacking, there are too many pesos and the BCRA is also unable to buy dollars in amounts appropriate to the time of year. June ended with a rise in the dollar in real terms and the trend seems to be maintained in the coming months.

The greater the gap, the higher the exit from the cepo will be, the BCRA must try to prevent it from continuing to grow but a crawling-peg 2% mensual It doesn’t seem to be the way.

2 – Rates

  • Traditional fixed term 2.80%/3.00% TEM
  • UVA fixed term: 4.2% until mid-July and 5.2% estimated for the following 30 days according to inflation estimates from the latest REM (Market Expectations Survey).

While the rates of the Fixed deadlines prices remain stable, confirming the rebound. Inflation in June is expected to exceed 5% per month, and in the first week of July there is again an increase in food and beverage inflation.

The Government is seeking to ensure that the reference rate for Fixed deadlines be that of Lecap’s and with it the current amount received by savers increases, for the moment it has not achieved its objective but if the transfer of remunerated liabilities to the Treasury is carried out, it could do so.

The question is whether a marginal increase in the rates would be enough to contain the dollars.

3 – Actions

  • S&P Merval 1.629.029.55 1.10% weekly
  • Merval at US$ 1,170.33 -1.96% weekly
  • S&P 500 5,567.19 1.95% weekly

Local market: A week of volatility in the local market. The impact of the Economy-BCRA press conference at the beginning of the week clearly played against it and the dollar-denominated measure ended up falling by almost 2%.

An economy in recession where the data They do not confirm having arrived at a flat makes it difficult for stocks to move higher, at least in dollars, which is a better way to measure assets.

Volatility will be a constant for the rest of the year and in the short term may be accompanied by profit taking.

American market: This market keeps postponing profit-taking, at least of any magnitude. While the market is waiting for it to happen at any moment, the reality is that any decline is shallow and time will end up being a buying opportunity.

As long as this continues to happen, the stop-loss and the trend continues.

4 – Bonds

Dollar bonds: This week there will be rent payments and amortization of some bonds, but there are no positive drivers for these assets, given that the country risk is far from the values ​​necessary to seek a rollover in 2025 and we are finishing the best part of the year to accumulate reserves. We must remember that to ensure payments, not only must the Treasury have a surplus, but the most important thing is that the BCRA has dollars to sell to the government.

Bonds in pesos: Although the 2% crawling peg was ratified, the market does not seem to be very convinced and dollar-linked bonds are once again in demand, which implies a risky position given that they have the restriction to determine the exchange rate.

In the Cer bonds We can already find several with a positive real rate, which could be a good option with inflation accelerating.

5- Stock of pesos vs CCL

The amount of pesos It is not decreasing, what changes is its composition. The weights go from remunerated liabilities to Treasury debt, but they are still there and growing.

Once again the graph brings the curves together showing that the CCL price I was late, as always the adjustment occurs quickly.

Friday’s closing price of $1,391 remains below the amount of pesos Therefore, its value is not expensive. Two factors will be fundamental: the first is the speed of growth of the amount of money and the other is the mood of investors/savers.

What this graph shows us, added to what we have seen in the rest of the variables, is to expect that the financial dollars keep going up.

 
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