After the holiday and the elections that consecrated Javier Milei As the next president of the Argentines, the local market opens this Tuesday to digest the electoral result. Monday’s background will surely lead the way. In NYArgentine stocks and bonds had a day of euphoria that is repeated in the prices seen at the local opening this Tuesday: the shares of YPF and Telecom lead the gainswith increases of 39.8% and 38.1%.
“We saw strong improvements of stocks on Wall Street. This should be replicated at least in tomorrow’s opening. It is a first reaction of much optimism and joins some investors who were speculating with short positions in Argentina and went out to buy them back. What the market perceives is a containment of the extremes that Milei proposes, with Mauricio Macri and Patricia Bullrich in the structure,” he stated. Diego Martínez BurzacoHead of Strategy Inviú.
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For Juan José Vázquezoperator of Cohen, It is not clear that the escalation of actions abroad will be replicated just like in the Buenos Aires round this Tuesday. “I imagine there will be some selling in shares to take a partial profit after the strong rise that was registered in New York,” he anticipated.
Precisely, the Argentine shares on Wall Street operate with greater caution this Tuesday. Already before the opening of the market, in what is known as premarket, the numbers were mixed. Once the formal round started, the numbers turned almost entirely red. However, they are losses moderate compared to the increases of the previous day. The biggest setback is for Cresudwhich falls more than 5%.
In any case, while Milei defines the first measures and the names of his cabinet, the market is carried away by a resounding change in expectations. She explained it this way Gustavo Neffaoperator of Research for Traders, which mentioned the president-elect’s statements about the privatization of public companies and a possible solution to the Leliq problem. “Everything comes together reduction of fiscal deficit since the scenario that was taking place is ending,” he stated.
The Argentine bonds in dollars rose this Monday on Wall Street and the country risk cut more than 100 units. This Tuesday, the upward trend continues and securities show increases of more than 1% abroad. In the Buenos Aires market The increases are in double figures and can exceed 15%.
On the other hand, with the opening of the Buenos Aires market came the reaction of the debt in local currency, which could be the most affected if Milei moved forward with his idea of dollarizing the economy. There were decreases in bonds that adjust for inflation and increases in those that follow the official exchange rate. In addition, the Government will tender this Tuesday securities in pesos adjusted, precisely, for these two variables, in what will be the first market test with the electoral result in place.
Concern about the dollar and inflation
Unlike bonds and stocks, which anticipated the euphoria on Monday, the exchange issue generates more doubts among analysts. He crypto dollarthe only variable that worked during the Argentine holiday, moved around $1000 and this Tuesday it operates below that value.
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Although it has a limited volume, it is likely that this value will be the horizon towards which the prices of the Dolar blue -which had closed on Friday at $950- and the financial -which ended in the $870 area last week-. “There is going to be a jump in cash with settlement with respect to Friday,” Vázquez had anticipated.
In line with what the analysts had predicted, he Dolar blue jumps $105 and trades at $1055, after touching $1070 this afternoon. For their part, the financial show more limited increases. He MEP dollar is the one that reacts the most and It already exceeds $890. On the other hand, cash with settlement fell 1.2% and was sold below $880.
On this point, Neffa acknowledged that the increase in the dollar will impact prices: “The impact of the exchange rate on the inflation. Expectations about this variable have a great risk of spiralize inflation a little more, which we already estimate to be around 180% or 200% for February. It will depend on the appointments, economic policy and measures,” he relativized.
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In it official marketthe Government validated an increase of two pesos in both the wholesale and retail segments. Uncertainty is also reflected in an increase in the price of future dollarwhich last week had fallen due to the expectation of a victory for the ruling party that would continue with exchange controls for another year, as it had anticipated Sergio Massa. On the contrary, Milei spoke of shock policies, which make one hope for a faster lifting of the stocks. The positions to December they exceeded $800 after the opening of that market.