Contrary to what was expected, The sale of the thick harvest is taking longer than expectedwhich complicates agroindustrial exports and prevents the Central Bank from accumulating more dollars in its reserves.
The reason is that the producers consider that the dollar is behind scheduleand they sell what is fair and necessary, as admitted by agroindustrial sectors.
Despite this difficulty, the purchasing capacity of the Central Bank continues at a good pace, since it bought US$400 million in the week and more than US$15,000 million since the change of Government.
The official exchange market closed the week with the same depressed business volume that it has been showing in recent times: This Friday he operated US$300 million in cash, with which it completed US$1,180 million in the week.
It is a level 40% lower than that which had been negotiated in similar weeks.
It is a fact that surprises operatorswho have been waiting for the arrival of the settlements linked to the coarse harvest and imagined being able to have some advance payment in this regard due to the boost that the new lowering of rates gave to the export exchange rate (via the rebound of the CCL dollar).
US$ 5,000 million of net reserves to think about lifting the stocks
The national deputy and economist José Luis Espert estimated that the Government needs at least US$ 5,000 million of net reserves to think about lifting the stocksand recently managed to reach equilibrium after receiving negative reserves of about US$ 10,000 million.
In it agricultural sector do not hesitate to maintain that the thick harvest remains in the fields and that this is basically the product of a context marked by adverse climatic conditions and the presence of the leafhopper, which generated an overlap in the harvest of first-class, second-grade cereal, and early and late corn.
All this, they say, led to producers delaying the sale of their grains and exporters delaying dollar settlements.
The “innate speculative factor” that Caputo spoke of
The clarifications seek to discourage “innate speculative factor” to which the Minister of Economy, Luis, referred this week Caputoreferring to both the producers and the cereal companies.
“It is a factor that we do not control. The most we can do is guarantee the greatest possible stability,” he said when asked about these “possible delays.”
From the exchange market, what they observe is that the traded volume remains in line with the April average, which has not yet shown the seasonality expected for the harvest.
“The so-called ‘high season’ is undoubtedly delayed,” They observed in turn from Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI).
The massive liquidation of the coarse harvest has not yet started. Beyond the impact that the oil workers’ union strike on Monday and Tuesday could have had, we expected to see a liquidation of the agricultural sector in these days, which did not happen, they admit.
Will the export or blend dollar be eliminated in June?
In the Last revision of the agreement with the IMF it was stipulated that the export dollar or blend (80% settled at the official value and 20% at the CCL dollar) would be eliminated at the end of Juneeither.
That, at today’s prices, would drop the effective exchange rate that the exporter receives by 5% and could discourage liquidations.
Hence, the market begins to analyze that this term, if necessary, “could eventually be renegotiated.”
Fountain: Argentine News
