This Wednesday the fate of the Bases Law is at stake in the Senate and the ruling party is guaranteed approval in general, but in the individual vote it is still There are key items that, without further modifications, are at risk of falling. While, Kirchnerism threatens to accompany Martín Lousteau’s proposals for change that if they manage to prevail, they would complicate the treatment of the project when it returns to the Deputies.
As Clarín said, the ruling came out – after an emergency intervention by the Chief of Staff, Guillermo Francos – with fair signatures and more dissidence than full support.
Although for the general vote they have a floor of 37 or 38 votes, in particular this is where the outlook darkens for the Government. Especially in the treatment of delegated powers, privatizations, and Income Tax.
“Are you seriously going to give delegations to a guy who says he is a mole who is going to destroy the State from within?” they came out to pressure from Unión por la Patria, which has a group of 33 legislators led by José Mayans.
The articles are approved by a simple majority. If all the senators were seated, It is enough for Kirchnerism that four more legislators accompany them in the rejection to reverse that part of the project. And it is known that there are radicals, like Pablo Blanco from Fuegian, who from the outset stated that he would not endorse the granting of the powers delegated to the Executive Branch, and other senators from provincial party benches advanced the same thing.
In the area of privatizations, The companies that generate the discussion are three: Aerolíneas Argentinas, Correo Argentino and Radio y Televisión Argentina, which covers Public Television and National Radio. The senators were responsible for insisting that they are essential services for communication and interconnection, especially for the most remote places in the country.
But the ruling party did not accept, for now, putting these companies in a separate article to prevent them from If the article that enables its privatization falls, They also drag the other six companies – among them Aysa, Correo Argentino and Ferrocarril Belgrano Cargas – that appear on the same list.
The Income Tax reform, for its part, faces strong rejection and, despite the fact that a 22% differential was reintroduced in the non-taxable minimum for workers from unfavorable areas, The Patagonians do not guarantee their support.
In such finite votes, The abstentions and absences of the senators will be decisive.
At La Libertad Avanza they do not want to give up any more changes and accept the risk of some of the items falling. They are confident that an eventual rejection of an article will not reach two-thirds (48 votes) of the House. If that happens, when the project returns to Deputies for ratification, there they will be able to insist on the original deed with the simple majority that they already had in that chamber and thus reincorporating the dropped points. On the other hand, if the Senate makes any changes with the vote of two-thirds of the senators, deputies will have to obtain an equivalent majority to be able to insist and impose yourself.
“The modifications in general, from what I heard, I think they are good. But I want you to vote for them and for them to come,” said Martín Menem, who did not rule out that the project returns without an article or “a modification with which there is no agreement.”
The Executive is already working on that. The Deputy Chief of Staff, José Rolandi, met this week with Deputy Miguel Ángel Pichetto, who leads We Make the Federal Coalition, a decisive bench for the fate of the Law.
“We reviewed the modifications and proposals of the Senate. Most of them reasonable, “I reiterated the bloc’s commitment to helping ensure that the law is dealt with quickly and effectively so that we can vote on it before the month of July,” Pichetto said.
However, other dialogue groups already warn that it may not be so easy to insist on original writing. “There are things that the deputies missed, but if we manage to improve them it will be very difficult for them to oppose,” says a leading radical senator. It is also not entirely clear, because there is not enough background information, how the vote will be taken to accept or reject the changes.
Pay attention to this, Union for the Homeland rearranges its strategy. Voting against the rule in general is not in doubt, but they know that it is impossible to reverse it, that’s why They are devising a plan B for the vote in particular: they are analyzing accompanying changes proposed in the opinion presented by Martín Lousteau this Friday.
“We can exchange items and we are discussing it“said a high source from the K block.
Lousteau proposes, for example, that for the privatizations of Aerolíneas Argentinas and Correo Argentino the Executive must send a separate law with the privatization plan, in which it must guarantee airline interconnections and the postal service at a reasonable price throughout the country. .
A version more similar to the “law by law” privatizations that had been requested, without success, in the dialogue opposition of Deputies. If the Senate, with the support of UP, manages to modify it, would the dialogueists back down? At the very least, they would be in a bind. Especially in radicalism. Because the person who is proposing these changes is not just any senator: he is the president of the UCR. Kirchnerism is willing to take advantage of this open-air internal.
The same could happen if they approve a higher floor in Earnings with a quarterly update. But not only that. Lousteau’s opinion incorporates into the project the retirement recomposition that has just received half a sanction, with the endorsement of the UCR, in Deputies.
He Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI) It is another article that the ruling party must carefully navigate.
The first challenge for Vice President Victoria Villarruel will be the parliamentary work meeting this Monday. There the ruling party will seek, in agreement with the allied block heads, to guarantee an orderly start of the session. Above all, for the request for interpellation to Minister Sandra Pettovello with which the UP bench will put pressure.
