Petro Government is preparing to rebuild its forces in Congress after the end of the legislature | News today | change of ministers

The second legislative year closed a day ago, but the government of President Gustavo Petro and Congress are already recalculating your strategies looking ahead to what will come when parliamentary work resumes. In fact, adjustments were announced in the ministerial cabinet and there will also be changes in the leadership of the Senate and the House, which, added to an anticipated electoral debate for the 2026 presidential elections, is reconfiguring the political landscape.

The legislature that passed marked a turning point in the relationship between the House of Nariño and the Legislature, in the midst of strong tensions that even left direct confrontations between the head of state and some congressmen due to the alleged existence of an “institutional blockade.” This, in response to bittersweet result that left the processing of several projects considered transcendental by the Government. Although several were approved, the health and education reforms were scuttled.

This complex relationship not only focused on the discussion of the substance of the reforms, but also on legislative maneuvers, the scandal over the alleged money that would have arrived at the Capitol from the Risk Management Unit (Ungrd) to approve the texts, the pressure from the streets on the agenda and various announcements by the president, such as his calls for “Constituent power”, the possibility of bringing out some proposals in this way and his doubts about the national agreement: “This is not the time,” he said from Cali the same day he spoke for the first time about a constituent.

However, after the last day of this legislative semester, the Minister of the Interior, Luis Fernando Velascohighlighted a trill published by Petro, in which he indicated that “the possibility of a great national agreement revives.” In fact, that is why he himself asked the president this Friday to put in place “a legislative agreement that allows the construction of an agenda (…) I do believe that the Government has to think about bringing people from the parties that represent that agreement.” .

But there are doubts about that proposal. First, because Velasco, who managed to keep a majority of representatives and a very tight group of senators on the side of the Government, would be one of the first to leave his position after the eventual ministerial shake-up announced by Petro. Also, because the president would be surrounding himself with officials much closer to his left-wing political project. And only this June 21 he said from Popayán that the education reform collapsed because “there was no such national agreement” and that he was “naive” believing that such dialogue was possible.

Diverse positions coexist in the Government and there are several voices that for months have been talking about divisions, “friendly fire” and alleged “trips.” Just this June 21, the first lady, Veronica Alcocerdenounced a discredit plan against her from within the Government itself and asked the attorney general, Luz Adriana Camargo, to investigate the alleged setups that sought to associate her with the acts of corruption in the Ungrd.

On the other hand, there has also been talk of the departure of other ministers such as Aurora Vergara, of Education, due to the crisis generated with Fecode within the framework of the education reform process. And also the Minister of Housing, Catalina Velasco, not only because her portfolio would have been one of the lowest executed so far in 2024, but because the harshest Petrism sees her as a figure close to the traditional parties. Others talk about Guillermo Alfonso Jaramillo, from Health, and Andrés Camacho, from Mines and Energy. The changes could be finalized next week.

Although not all the names have yet been confirmed, the next legislature would begin with new political actors in the Executive and possibly with another Government Minister steering the agreements in Congress. According to sources, the return of the now Colombian ambassador to the United Kingdom, Roy Barreras, could be in the works, who would be talking with a sector that includes the director of DAPRE, Laura Sarabia, to reconstruct agreements and prevent more radical positions from being adopted. Or also the current president of Colpensiones, Jaime Dussán.

(Read: “The fiscal crossroads [análisis]”)

What happens in the relationship with Congress

The agreements that the Government manages to build will be key, since, in addition to the natural wear and tear of its political capital, President Petro actually has one year left to execute, since in mid-2025 Colombia would formally enter the pre-electoral period and at the beginning of 2026 in Guarantees Law. All this, while sectors of the center-right and right seek to gain legitimacy in the midst of public debate.

The Government recognizes that to achieve these objectives, a figure will be necessary that unifies the entire Historical Pact in Congress and even the Government ministers, since until now there has been talk of figures who seek individual roles and that they even want to project themselves to 2026. In this framework, the reforms to health, education and the one that gives powers to the agrarian jurisdiction would be put up for consideration again; In addition, the labor reform continues in process.

But, without agreements and without a leading voice, it will be very difficult to get these proposals alive, especially in the Senate, where the majorities are limited. Furthermore, the senator Efrain Cepeda, from the Conservative Party and who has been distant from the Government, would be the next president of Congress. Of course, the Government would not intervene in his election, because apparently they consider him a guaranteeing voice, but especially because they arrived late to that discussion.

“I hope that the relationship with the Executive is respectful, of harmonious collaboration between public powers. For my part, if I become president, I will offer all the guarantees. And the call to the government is to agree to agree on the projects. To that extent, I think we can move forward. We know that some reforms are required,” Cepeda, who was ratified by his party as the sole candidate to preside over the Senate, told this newspaper.

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In the election in which the Government will seek space, it will be that of the presidency of the Chamber, which corresponds to the Green Alliance party. Although Katherine Miranda has been moving to get the votes, the Government does not support her aspiration and recently, Martha Alfonso, closest to them and who was a speaker of the pension and health reforms, ran to confront them. The ruling party also looks favorably on representative Jaime Raúl Salamanca, close to the sector of the governor of Boyacá, Carlos Amaya.

The Executive knows that it can intervene in the Chamber, since there it has the majorities in its favor, where they managed to build a bloc made up of the Historical Pact, several allies of the traditional parties and with 14 of the 16 members of the CITREP. They demonstrated this with the approval of the pension reform, which had 86 votes in favor. Meanwhile, in the Senate they only built majorities for very specific issues, and the close ones are mainly from the Liberal and the U.

What’s more, it was from the political committee, made up of the Minister of the Interior and congressmen María José Pizarro and David Racero, that it was promoted to convert these allies into a kind of coalition to support the Government. This was not achieved in the Senate, where agreements vary. But in the House it was possible even with the support of the Conservative Party. There was also search the support of more capable legislatorssince within the Executive there has been much talk about the limited parliamentary control of the representatives of the Historical Pact due to their inexperience.

For the moment, the next legislative year will be crucial, because in addition to the reforms, the investigation against President Gustavo Petro for alleged irregularities in the financing of his presidential campaign will continue in the Commission of Accusations. And additional projects will also come in macroeconomic matters, with which the Government plans to face the slowdown. On the one hand, there has been talk of make the tax rule more flexiblebut also a new tax reform and a forced investment law.

Now, the education reform would enter again through the first commissions, the pension reform through the seventh commissions, and the economic projects through the third commissions. Therefore, the names that will occupy the boards of directors are also a concern. In the Senate, The First Commission is disputed by Ariel Ávila and Jota Pe Hernandez (Green Alliance). The Seventh corresponds to the Conservative Party, and there is talk of Senator Nadia Blel. The Third is from the Liberal Party and is possibly Karina Espinosa, who would also want to be first vice president of the Senate.

In the Chamber, the First corresponds to the U Party, and the majorities would be Ana Paola García. The Seventh will be presided over by Gerardo Yepes of the Conservative Party, and in the Third there is a fight between the liberals Silvio Carrasquilla and Kelyn González.

“The country has deep expectations. Of course we will have to look at what decisions are made around and who remains on the boards of directors, and if they are going to be guarantors with all the benches,” the senator told El Espectador. María José Pizarro. For his part, the opposition senator, David Luna, pointed out that what a sector of the Government is looking for is to start the electoral debate early for 2026, which is why he warned that we should not “take that bait.” As he said, “they want the presidential campaign to start as quickly as possible. And we have to demand that Petro govern and execute.”

Thus, strategic adjustments are coming and in the meantime, the need to recalibrate political alliances is foreseen, not only to advance with the projects, but also so that the Executive gains greater governability in the two years that remain. The head of state’s speech will also set the pace of the inter-institutional relationship, and there is expectation for the tone it will take when the full Congress hears it again in a month, in the setup of the sessions for the 2024-2025 period.