Crisis Cabinet | The Herald of Mexico

Crisis Cabinet | The Herald of Mexico
Crisis Cabinet | The Herald of Mexico

The careful profiling of men and women, whose identity has so far been revealed as members of the cabinet presidential nomination for the period 2024-2030, the timing of its announcement and the order in which it has become public, reveal a strategically defined team to face a crisis situation.

The determination to make public, before any other appointment, the designation of Rogelio Ramirez de la O As Secretary of the Treasury, he responds, above all, to the pressing moments of uncertainty and nervousness in the financial markets and on the part of of part of the major national and international investors.

And it is that Claudia Sheinbaum and his team face the primary challenge of generating certainty so that capital does not flee the country. Paradoxically, the overwhelming triumph of MORENAfueled fears that decisions could be taken that go against the rules of the economic and financial markets.

It is clear that the momentum is not political, but economic-financial, and that fact is supported by the decision to leave

for a third or fourth opportunity the appointment of the Secretary of the Interior, in charge of conducting internal policy and to a large extent aligning the governability al plan sexenal already the presidential decisions.

Other appointments in the internal government were left for another time, because the priority today is the economic and financial, which, according to the profile of those appointed so far, goes hand in hand with the prioritization of development technologicalurban redevelopment, road and telecommunications infrastructure and everything that involves digital innovation. Everything that implies the opportunity for “shared growth”.

The twelve collaborator appointments that have been made to date Claudia Sheinbaumwith a progressiveness full of symbolism, reinforces the perception that action will be taken with a key vision to try to overcome as soon as possible the situations that have caused serious impacts in strategic areas and caused the loss of unique opportunities internally but above all externally.

The appointment of Luz Elena González as Secretary of Energy carries great significance. She is not only one of the closest and most trusted officials of the next president of Mexico.

González held a highly relevant portfolio in the government of the Mexico Cityor, the Secretariat of Administration and Finance, that is, the structural and budgetary management of the largest city in the world, a position from which he acted with honesty and transparency, a fundamental premise for Sheinbaum.

But now the moment of the country is different and Light Elena Gonzalez will arrive at the Energy Secretariat with two major challenges: PEMEX and CFE. He will play a decisive role as a member of the Board of Directors of both companies and arrives with the full support of the virtual president-elect.

It is necessary to get out of the complex situation in which both State Productive Enterprises find themselves, which historically, and the six-year term that is ending has not been the exception, have bled the national finances.

On the whole PEMEX y CFE They have debts equivalent to 6.9 points of the Gross Domestic Product, that is, of the total of what the country produces and generates, according to data from the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness. The Financial Debt of Mexican oil It would be in the order of 1.79 billion pesos, that is, 5.6 points of GDP.

In case of CFE It is not better. Its debt is around 411.9 billion pesos, according to data as of the end of 2023, which was equivalent to 1.3 points of the Gross Domestic Product. CFE It has a bigger problem: a quarter of its debt, 24.5 percent, is due in the short term.

Maintaining control and sovereignty over hydrocarbons and energy is undoubtedly the task, but making both companies financially and operationally sustainable is the greatest challenge. Cleaning up their finances and making them competitive, beyond nationalistic dreams, will be the test for the Energy Minister, in partnership with Ramírez de la O.

Raquel Buenrostro will have specific political responsibilities, but in her field, the implementation of greater austerity in public administration will be the hallmark.

On this subject, the virtual president-elect has already said that republican austerity will be reinforced, but not as a style of government, but rather as a pressing need because in the last six years more has been spent than was available.

And there are campaign promises that will require billions in extraordinary budget for support for women aged 60 to 64, and scholarships for all high school students, not to mention the payment of retirement pensions at current salaries. Billions of pesos that will have to come from austerity, cuts and tax collection.

The main international rating agencies have identified the required reduction of the fiscal deficit, the reduction of inflation and the construction of viable macroeconomic conditions as the main immediate challenges of the new presidential administration. This has been stated by Standard and Poor’s, Fitch and Moody’s.

Not in vain have they warned that at least the first two years of the government of Claudia Sheinbaum Gross Domestic Product growth will be low, lower than official forecasts, perhaps GDP will reach 2 points, due to the burdens of a high deficit, high debt and excessive public spending.

Marcelo Ebrard closes the clamp of this first block of an emergency cabinet, He will arrive at the Ministry of Economy with an immediate task: sit down face to face with the US government, which will most likely be headed again by Republican Donald Trump, to renegotiate the Mexico-United States-Canada Treaty (TMEC).

The date set by the three countries to hold the first major review of the TMEC It’s in 2026, which is just around the corner.

The biggest risk for now is that Donald Trumpwho leads the polls for the US presidential elections to be held next November, planned the departure of EU of this trade agreement, because he considers it very bad for his country.

His tools of pressure, however, are not at all simple: environment, labor situation, certainty and rule of law. In these areas he will press to impose his conditions on Mexico if he wants it to continue the process. TMEC.

And that’s what it comes to Marcelo Ebrardto sit with Trumpmoderate it and look for the best solutions for the three countries, but especially for Mexico.

A transitional cabinet for the construction of the Second Floor of the Fourth Transformation, says the political speech, but in reality it will be a cabinet of crisis, due to the current storms and those foreseen in the short and medium term.

By Oscar Sanchez Marquez

Political communication specialist and journalist.

@delvalle1968

MYPR

 
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