Analysis of the intensity and scope of attacks against Israel (8/10/23 – 1/7/24)

Analysis of the intensity and scope of attacks against Israel (8/10/23 – 1/7/24)
Analysis of the intensity and scope of attacks against Israel (8/10/23 – 1/7/24)

Lieutenant Dana Polak Kanarik

Since Hezbollah launched the conflict against Israel on the northern border on October 8, 2023, and until July 1, 2024, we have recorded 2,295 attacks against northern Israel, the vast majority perpetrated by Hezbollah:

94.3% of attacks against Israel were carried out within 0-5 kilometers of the border.

3.1% of the attacks occurred within a range of 5 to 10 kilometers from the border.

1.9% of the attacks occurred within a range of 10 to 20 kilometers from the border.

0.65% of the attacks occurred within a range of 20 to 30 kilometers from the border.

0.05% of attacks occurred more than 30 kilometers from the border.

The military area most heavily attacked was the Mount Dov region and its outposts, with a total of 265 incidents.

Hezbollah carries out daily attacks in this area.

As for civilian targets, the most frequently attacked communities have been Metula with 49 incidents, Kiryat Shmona with 45 and Manara with 30.

It is important to note that we counted the number of attack incidents, and not the number of projectiles fired in each incident, which may explain why these figures may appear to be lower than the perceived impact.

Data indicates that Hezbollah’s attacks against Israel are mainly limited to the area near the border.

When Hezbollah extends its attack range beyond 5 kilometers, it usually occurs as part of its response within the framework of its ‘pain equation’ to Israel Defense Forces (IDF) attacks in Lebanon.

A good example from last month was the elimination of the commander of the Nasser Unit on the southern front, Taleb Abdallah (Abu Taleb).

Its elimination was responded to with a series of retaliatory strikes by Hezbollah, lasting three days, during which Hezbollah carried out several attacks beyond the 5 km range, including attacks against the Miron base, bases in the Golan Heights and the Ami’ad area.

Furthermore, the furthest attack from the border perpetrated by Hezbollah was against the Sky Dew anti-missile defense balloon site in the Tiberias area (on May 15, 2024).

That was also in response to the elimination of senior Hezbollah member Hussain Ibrahim, head of intelligence in Hezbollah’s Southern Front.

In this way, Hezbollah preserves the equation that the more painful an Israeli attack is for the organization, the more intense its response will be deep inside Israel and against higher-quality targets.

The geographical delineation of the campaign between Hezbollah and Israel is also evident in the IDF’s attacks in Lebanon since the war began.[i]

The main Israeli effort has focused on destroying Hezbollah infrastructure in villages along the border, primarily those located within a few kilometers of the border fence.

Since the beginning of the war, there have been 20 rocket launches from the Syrian zone towards the Israeli side of the Golan Heights.

The area most heavily attacked is the Keshat area in the Golan Heights, an area that has been targeted by at least four rocket launches from Syria.

No organization has claimed responsibility for the attacks from Syria.

We believe it is highly likely that these are Palestinian organisations, possibly Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad operatives.

These operatives may have come from Damascus or even been sent from Lebanon to carry out the attacks.

The information presented on the map is based on Hezbollah’s claims of responsibility and additional data from open sources.

Some information may not have been published.

Each attacked area is marked as a point on the map.

The colors of the dots (heat map) represent the number of attack events in each area.

Additional information not shown on the map includes UAV interceptions; in many cases, the location of the interception is unknown, making it difficult to mark them on the map.

However, the map is intended to present as comprehensive a picture as possible of Hezbollah’s attacks against Israel on the northern border.

[i] https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/idf-press-releases-regarding-the-hamas-israel-war/march-24-pr/operational-summary-of-activities-in-the-northern-front-over-the-past-5-months/

Fuente: Alma Research and Education Center

 
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