What happened in June with this investment tool for banks, due to the changes made by the BCRA

What happened in June with this investment tool for banks, due to the changes made by the BCRA
What happened in June with this investment tool for banks, due to the changes made by the BCRA

In this sense, according to data from the BCRA, released by the consulting firm LCG, Fixed-term deposits fell by 7.6% in real terms in June, showing their worst year-on-year drop of 51.7%. In turn, dollar deposits increased 1.2% monthly, measured at the end of the month (USD 207 million), with a total of USD 17.9 billion.

According to LCG, this situation will lead to a process of “bank disintermediation” for the remainder of 2024.

Fixed term: what can happen with this financial tool

According to the consultancy’s analysis, A further fall in inflation and a return to positive real rates, as requested by the IMF, can leave negative rates behind to encourage access to term deposits which remain at a lower level than last year.

In this sense, the question that hovers over financial analysts is How much should the rate rise to improve the performance of the fixed term.

In mid-May, following a decline in inflation, The BCRA lowered the rate and placed it at 40% per year, so fixed terms are offering an average of 31% per year in banks. This left a yield for fixed terms of 2.5% TEM.

Meanwhile, inflation, according to various economists, is at a level above 4% per month, while the dollar climbed 11% in June and in the first week of July it is already up 4%.

This rate reduction was the sixth in the administration of Santiago Bausilli at the head of the Central Bank and generated an impact on the rise of parallel dollars. Therefore, according to analysts, For the rate to become attractive again, it should be raised to 60% APR.

 
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