Almost all European electricity markets recorded hours with negative prices last week – pv magazine Spain

Almost all European electricity markets recorded hours with negative prices last week – pv magazine Spain
Almost all European electricity markets recorded hours with negative prices last week – pv magazine Spain

In the first week of July, prices in most major European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week. Hours of negative prices were recorded in almost all markets in the latter part of the week. Rising wind production, as well as falling gas prices and demand in some markets, helped to push prices down. Photovoltaics broke a record in Spain on the 3rd, and in Portugal, France and Italy, the highest daily production for a month of July was recorded during the week.

Solar photovoltaic and thermoelectric production and wind production

In the week of July 1, solar production increased compared to the previous week in the markets of the Iberian Peninsula and Italy. The largest increase was recorded in the Portuguese market, which was 42%, followed by the 23% increase in the Spanish market. In the case of Spain, the analysis includes solar photovoltaic and solar thermal power. In the Italian market, generation increased for the second consecutive week, this time by 2.6%. On the other hand, the markets of Germany and France registered decreases in solar production. In the German market, the drop was 28%, while in the French market it was 17%.

The Spanish market broke the historical record for photovoltaic solar production on July 3, with 202 GWh. The markets of Portugal, France and Italy, in the first week of July, registered the highest daily solar production for a month of July. In the Portuguese market, 21 GWh were reached on July 2, while in France and Italy the records were registered on Friday, July 5, with 115 GWh and 128 GWh, respectively.

For the second week of July, according to the solar production forecasts of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, an increase in production is expected in the German and Italian markets compared to the previous week, while it is expected to decrease in the Spanish market.

Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.

Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.

In the first week of July, wind power production increased in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The German market saw the largest increase of 120%, followed by increases of 74% in the French market and 46% in the Portuguese market. The Spanish market recorded a rise of 16%, while the Italian market saw the lowest growth of 8.3%. In the German, Spanish and Italian markets, this is the second consecutive week with increases in wind power production.

According to the wind energy production forecasts from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, in the week of July 8, production with this technology will decrease across the board in the analysed European electricity markets.

Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.

Electric demand

During the first week of July, the variations in electricity demand compared to the previous week had a heterogeneous behaviour in the main European electricity markets. In the markets of the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain, demand increased. The Dutch market was the one with the greatest increase, 9.9%. In Portugal and Spain, where demand increased for the third consecutive week, the increases were 3.4% and 2.1%, respectively, coinciding with the recovery of demand after the holiday of June 24, St. John’s Day, which is celebrated in some regions of both countries. In the British market, demand remained similar to that recorded during the previous week. On the other hand, in the markets of Belgium, France, Italy and Germany, demand fell. In this case, the Belgian market was the one with the greatest decrease, 4.5%, followed by the decreases in the French market, 2.2%, and the Italian market, 1.5%. The smallest decrease in demand was in the German market, 0.3%.

During the week, average temperatures decreased in most of the markets analysed compared to the last week of June. In the markets of Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany, the decreases were between 4.1 °C in Belgium and 4.6 °C in Germany. In France and Great Britain, the decreases were 3.3 °C and 3.1 °C, respectively, while Italy had the smallest decrease, 0.2 °C. On the other hand, the Iberian Peninsula was the exception, with average temperatures increasing by 0.5 °C in Spain and 0.2 °C in Portugal.

In the week of July 8, according to the demand forecasts of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, the electricity demand is expected to increase compared to the previous week in the markets of Italy, Spain, France and Great Britain. On the other hand, it is expected to decrease in the markets of Belgium, Germany, Portugal and the Netherlands.

Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.

European electricity markets

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In the first week of July, prices in most of the main European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week. The exception was the IPEX market in Italy, with an increase of 3.5%. The EPEX SPOT market in Germany registered the largest percentage drop in prices, of 61%. In the rest of the markets analysed in AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 20% in the Nord Pool market in the Nordic countries and 41% in the EPEX SPOT market in Belgium.

In the first week of July, weekly averages were below €60/MWh in most of the analysed European electricity markets. The UK N2EX market and the Italian market were the exceptions, with averages of €66.68/MWh and €105.50/MWh, respectively. On the other hand, the Nordic market and the French market recorded the lowest weekly averages, of €21.59/MWh and €26.82/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the analysed markets, prices ranged from €35.35/MWh in the Belgian market to €56.16/MWh in the MIBEL market in Portugal.

As regards hourly prices, most of the analysed European markets recorded negative prices on Saturday 6 July. The exception was the Italian market, which did not record negative prices in the first week of July. The British market also reached negative prices on 4 July and the Portuguese market on 7 July. The rest of the analysed markets recorded negative prices on those two days. The German, Belgian and Dutch markets also recorded negative hourly prices on 5 July. The Dutch market recorded the lowest hourly price of the first week of July, at -149.00 €/MWh, on Thursday 4 July, from 14:00 to 15:00. On the other hand, on Saturday 6 July, from 15:00 to 16:00, the Belgian market reached an hourly price of -140.00 €/MWh, the lowest for this market since July 2019.

During the week of July 1, the decrease in the average weekly gas price and the increase in wind power production exerted a downward influence on the prices of the European electricity markets. In addition, electricity demand decreased in some markets. The increase in solar production in the Iberian Peninsula also contributed to the decrease in prices on the MIBEL market.

The price forecasts of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting indicate that, in the second week of July, prices will increase in the main European electricity markets, influenced by the decrease in wind production and the increase in demand in some markets.

Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.

Brent, fuels and CO2

Brent oil futures for the Front-Month on the ICE market started the first week of July with price increases. However, on Tuesday, July 2, they registered their weekly minimum closing price of $86.24/bbl. On Wednesday and Thursday, prices rose again. As a result, on Thursday, July 4, these futures reached their weekly maximum closing price of $87.43/bbl. According to the data analysed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since May 1. After a 1.0% drop compared to the previous day, on Friday, July 5, the closing price was $86.54/bbl, 0.2% higher than that of the previous Friday. The weekly average of the closing prices was 1.2% higher than that of the previous week.

In the first week of July, expectations of increased demand for summer travel, OPEC+ cuts and fears of the effects of the hurricane season on supply exerted an upward influence on Brent crude oil futures prices. However, concerns about the development of the economy remain.

Regarding the closing prices of TTF gas futures on the ICE market for the Front-Month, the first week of July they remained below €34/MWh. The weekly average was 3.3% lower than that of the last week of June. On Tuesday, July 2, these futures registered their maximum weekly closing price of €33.68/MWh. On Wednesday, July 3, there was a 3.0% drop compared to the previous day and the closing price was €32.69/MWh. According to the data analysed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this was the minimum weekly closing price and the lowest since May 21. Although prices rose on Thursday, on Friday they fell again. On Friday, July 5, the closing price was €33.07/MWh, 4.1% lower than that of the previous Friday.

High European stock levels and weather conditions contributed to lower TTF gas futures prices in the first week of July. However, there are concerns about LNG supply due to hurricanes in the Americas in the coming months and increased demand for air conditioning in Asian markets.

Regarding the CO2 emission rights futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2024, they increased compared to the previous week. On Monday, July 1, they registered their minimum weekly settlement price of €68.05/t. Prices continued to rise until Wednesday, July 3. On that day, these futures reached their maximum weekly settlement price of €70.76/t. According to the data analysed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since June 11. In the last sessions of the week, the settlement prices remained above €70/t. On Friday, July 5, the settlement price was €70.36/t, 4.3% higher than the previous Friday.

Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.

Por AleaSoft Energy Forecasting

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