Construction, industry and commerce have had a sharp deterioration in their growth rate, even in the third quarter they fell, and one of the factors that explain this dynamic is the current panorama of high interest rates, which are at 13.25 percent.
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According to an analysis by the Corficolombiana Economic Research team, the commercial portfolio by sector reveals that these They are those with the highest level of debt and, therefore, the greatest sensitivity to the current situation.
As a percentage of GDP, the civil works portfolio is 99.4 percent, while buildings and energy supply amount to 62.3 and 59.7 percent respectively.
For its part, commerce and industry have a level close to 28 percent.
As a percentage of GDP, the civil works portfolio is 99.4 percent.
EL TIEMPO / Courtesy
Portfolio as % of GDP by sectors (2Q23)
Civil works 99
Energy and gas 60
Professional activities 10
Real estate activities 6
Accommodation and restaurants 5
Mines and quarries 2
The BanRep Board has increased its rate by 11.50 percentage points (pp) since September 2021.
Effect of rates on sectors
The BanRep Board has increased its rate by 11.50 percentage points (pp) since September 2021. In parallel, Commercial credit rates have advanced 11.94 pp and consumer credit rates have advanced 11.94 pp.
“This situation will decrease the growth of real retail sales by up to 19.4 pp and will reduce the real production of the industry by up to 10.7 pp throughout 2024,” says the Corficolombiana analysis.
Likewise, the report says that high rates are affecting the dynamics of the construction sector through a lower pace of initiation and execution of civil works.
“The 13.13 pp increase in rates for builders will reduce housing starts by up to 6.6 pp and the execution of civil works by up to 9.6 pp over the next year,” he points out.