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This article was curated by Santiago Ávila
Apr 16, 2024 – 3:26 pm
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The Bank of the Republic of Colombia updated its monthly expectations survey carried out by market analysts, which corresponds to the month of April 2024.
There are updates for data such as the inflationthe interest rate and the exchange rate.
Among the forecasts that presented the most significant results were find the inflation projections in Colombia.
Thus, the issuer’s survey indicates that the market average expects This indicator will close in 2024 at 5.62%.
That is, higher than the 5.60% expected in the March survey of this year.
For what corresponds to the end of 2025, The inflation forecast remained stable at 3.90%announced in the third month of the year.
And for the monthly data, the survey bank Colombian central bank indicates that the market expects an average variation in April of 0.57%.
What does the Banco de la República survey expect for food inflation?
The central bank survey also revealed the behavior of market expectations for food inflation.
In the March survey, the market average expected that The food CPI will be at levels of 5.64% by the end of 2024 and now in the April survey the average estimate is 5.65%.
By the end of 2025, the average expectation of analysts rose from 3.65% to 3.70%.
For the month of April alone, the average estimate is 0.53%.
Interest rate expectations increase
Another indicator that had an update by the market is the interest rate.
Recommended: BanRep Manager reveals aspects to take into account for possible new interest rate cuts
On average, the market expects that by the end of 2024 this rate will be 8.44% on average. a figure higher than the 8.43% predicted in the previous survey.
It is worth mentioning that the next meeting of the Board Directive of the Bank of the Republic will be next April 30.
The forecasts are related to the interest rate being on average over 11.74%, with a maximum of 12.25% and a minimum of 11.50% for April.
Meanwhile, by the end of 2025 the average projection increased from 5.58% to 5.59% in the intervention interest rate.
What awaits the dollar in Colombia at the end of 2024?
Another piece of information provided by the issuer survey is the expectations of the dollar In colombia.
The above occurs within the framework of the wide volatility that the currency has presented, due to the fact that a couple of weeks ago it reached a minimum of $3,735 and now returned to higher levels of $3,900.
The analyst consensus predicts that the month of April will end on average at $3,845.
However, projections for the end of this year predict that this will decrease.
The above, because in the previous survey it was predicted that it would end on average in $4,008 and is now expected to end the year at $3,999.
The expectation for the closing of 2025 increased. The market’s bet is that it will end on average at $4,020, while previously the average expectation was that it would end at $4,018.
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