the two key factors that analysts look at to predict the exchange rate dynamics of the coming days

the two key factors that analysts look at to predict the exchange rate dynamics of the coming days
the two key factors that analysts look at to predict the exchange rate dynamics of the coming days

The blue dollar and the financial ones rose more than $150 in recent days and the gap with the official dollar exceeded 40%, reaching highs since the beginning of February.

Reuters

The blue dollar and financial exchange rates had a strong rebound on the rise this week, after several months of calm in the markets. Looking to the future, Economists who spoke with Ámbito suggested monitoring two variables to predict the dynamics of the coming days.

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On the one hand, the economist Scalabrini Ortiz Study Center (CESO), Federico Zirulnik, highlighted the liquidation of exports as the most influential factor in the recent behavior of the CCL. “What had been sustaining the stability of the financiers were the dollars that came in through the ‘blend’. Now the liquidation of the coarse harvest should start but for now the dollars are not appearing,” he explained.

In that sense, the specialist maintained that the liquidation factor will predominate over the lowering of rates by the Central Bank (BCRA), which is another of the elements that fueled the appetite for the greenback.

Zirulnik stated that An improvement in the inflow of dollars from foreign sales will help stop this mini run although it does not guarantee that it will reach. However, he warned about the presence of contradictions for exporters since “there is a vicious circle; if they liquidate more, there is more supply in the ccl and the price drops, which is exactly the opposite of what they want”.

In parallel, the chief economist of Analytics, Claudio Capraruloexpressed that from the consulting firm they had already warned about a possible overheating of the blue dollar and the financiers given the delay that the contributions had been showing in the face of inflation. Still, she estimated that the increase may find a ceiling in the recession. “The sharp contraction suffered by sales and salaries acts as an anchor since it removes available liquidity to go towards the dollar,” he said.

The blue registered a jump of $155 in just three days, while the increase in the CCL was close to $180 in the last seven wheels. In this way, the gap with the official one exceeded 40% and reached maximum levels since the beginning of February.

 
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