Why the market thinks it hasn’t hit its ceiling yet

The blue dollar has been rising strongly and this Wednesday it slowed down that trend, however, the underlying dynamic that the market expects for these days is bullish until well into July, at least.

The blue dollar has been on an upward path for days.


Although it goes down this Wednesday, the blue dollar has been on an upward trend in recent days. The informal exchange rate rose in recent days as a reflection of the “taste of little” announcements made by the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputotogether with the president of the Central Bank (BCRA), Santiago Bausili. It is down $20 this Wednesday, July 3, but the underlying trend appears to be bullish. In this context, the city is wondering what could happen with the informal exchange rate.

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The market is pushing for a devaluation and pushing up parallel exchange rates, while The Government insists on continuing with the “crawling peg” at 2% per monthHowever, he announced the exchange of bank bonds for BCRA instruments in order to begin playing with the monetary policy rate.

Another element that is pushing upwards is the difficulty that the BCRA is having in purchasing reserves in recent times, which raises fears that the monetary regulator will have problems with its firepower to contain the dollar and will also have difficulties in lifting the restrictions in the near future.

Dynamics of the blue dollar: what’s next

In this context, and with the volatility of the last few days, it is difficult to anticipate what the dynamics of the blue will be going forward. “I think there is a senseless rise, If the passive and active rates rise, the dollar collapses“, evaluates in this regard Salvador DiStefanoknown in the city as “the blue guru.”

But for Gustavo Quintana, from PR Exchange Operators, “Until well into July, there will be no significant changes,” he said in a conversation with Scope that “the market is still searching for a new equilibrium value” and anticipates that it may rise even further.

One of the main reasons for this expectation is that there is still demand and little supply. Also, let us remember that the Christmas bonus was recently paid and that the current Government has been issuing a lot and has strongly increased the monetary base in recent months, which is why Quintana indicates that “It is noticeable that there are more pesos in the market.”

Blue dollar: in search of the ceiling

The problem is that, as he says, the economist Federico Glustein“It is virtually impossible to have a ceiling when there is no possibility of anchoring parallel exchange rates with some positive alternative in pesos.” That is to say, if there is no rate increase, the direction of surplus resources becomes more complex in a context in which there are many pesos in circulation.

When it comes to setting a price that could serve as a ceiling for the blue in the coming days, analysts maintain that The price of the dollar card and savings is a referencewhich is trading at around $1,492. That makes us think of $1,500 as a possible ceiling.so he still has some way to go in climbing.

Likewise, the Financial dollars are arbitrated with the blue and the dynamics they set going forward will be key to price evolution.

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