The Government is one step away from obtaining USD 3.5 billion from banks to pay off the capital that matures in January

Luis Caputo and Javier Milei, yesterday, during the President’s visit to the Ministry of Economy

The Government is very close to reaching an agreement with a group of banks to obtain the dollars to pay, in addition to the interest that was already transferred to a foreign account, the capital of that commitment. In January USD 4.9 billion expire and this month, on a date not too distant, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputowould announce the details of the operation that consists of a placement of sovereign bonds to a group of banks, with the obligation to repurchase on a predetermined date and prices.

After this operation, the amount of which would be around USD 3.5 billionhe country risk A second tranche of declines could begin at levels of 800 basis points, which would not require extraordinary assistance for the following months – the first half of 2025 is the most complicated – because it would be financed in the international capital market and would take on new debt to pay what is due. In other words, there will be no swap or mega swap, words that are used to cover up a default.

This possibility is foreseen by investors. Hence the new increase in bonds of up to 1.7%, as was the case of the most sought after title, the Global 2035Dwhich reduced the country risk by 19 units (-1.6%) to 1,188 basis points.

The parity of the bonds (some exceed 62%) looks better because they face the obstacle of the United States Treasury bonds that yield just over 4% and this makes the world’s money seek them. In these rounds there was not a single emerging country with the upward movement of local bonds. On the contrary, they come from enduring falls.

Nicolás Cappella, a trader at the IEB Group, pointed out that in the bonds “the party continues. From early on there were buyers throughout the sovereign curve that marked new highs and affected financial dollars, mainly the MEP.”

Money laundering and new debt perspectives also made corporate bonds. Investors are awaiting Vista’s bidding tomorrow for USD 150 million at a rate to be set by the market. It is believed that it will place them close to 7% annually, which is equivalent to a country risk of less than 300 basis points.

Los financial dollars They began the round with an absence of buyers and an excess of sellers that caused the MEP dollar to fall $14.52 (-1.22%) to $1,169.54. Cash with settlement (CCL) fell $6.60 (-0.5%) to $1,210.61. The “blue” fell $10 to $1,175.

With these prices, the exchange (difference between MEP and CCL, which marks the cost of bringing or transferring dollars abroad) is 3.5%, a level that, according to the financial analyst, Salvador Vitelli “It hasn’t been seen since May 16.”

Investors in local debt bonds had a little more information about today’s auction. For case, LECAP deadlines were extended. The shortest bill that is tendered expires next January and they added two BONCAPs as an attraction, which are like the LECAPs, but with longer terms since they expire in October and December 2025. That is why the market for these securities operated without set the trend and maintained the prices of the previous round where the highest yield is 3.80% for the next June term. The CER bonds had slight increases, due to the doubts generated by the 4% inflation in CABA.

In the Free Exchange Market (MLC) where USD 309 million were operated, the Central Bank bought USD 39 million and totals USD 431 million so far this month. According to Andrés Reschini’s F2 consulting firm, “in the last 20 wheels, USD 857 million was made.” The Central Bank’s reserves fell by USD 175 million to 28,388 million.

The F2 consultancy highlights that “unlike the previous wheel, the futures adjusted with increases in practically the entire curve, although they are still modest variations since they did not exceed 0.33% as was the case in April 2025. The open interest had the largest daily cut in Javier Milei’s management, by ceding 84.2 million contracts.”

The news that brought relief to the world and made the New York Stock Exchange rise was the oil crash which indirectly collaborated in the bond euphoria.

But, according to the trader Matias Togni“what happens with oil, soybeans and other commodities is that they move at the pace of the news. When it was said that Israel was going to attack Iran, it rose by USD 4 a barrel. Now they clarified that they are only going to attack military installations and it fell by USD 4. The market is very sensitive to the news. What can be noted as relevant data is that the stimulus package for China’s economy, after a week of application, showed the reality: it is not as high as was presumed. The disappointment hit soybeans, corn and Chinese stocks. The truth is that commodities experience high volatility.”

The one that reacted was the Stock Market, hand in hand with the banks that were the big losers on Monday. The S&P Merval of the leading stocks rose 0.63%. The amount of business was more than $38 billion. Macro led the increases with 4.61%, followed by BBVA with 3.50% and Galicia with 2.89%.

ADRs – certificates of holdings of Argentine shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange – also closed in positive territory. Globant was the highlight with an increase of 9.6%. They were followed by banks Macro (+5.2%) and BBVA (+4.7%).

Today the market will be awaiting the result of the bidding that can be known after closing. If so, Thursday will be an intense day because the INDEC will release September inflation.

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