The World Bank (BM) predicted that Argentina will be the Latin American country that will grow the most for 2025, with an increase of 5.5 % in its Gross Internal Product (GDP). However, in a context of growing global uncertainty, Latin America and the Caribbean are consolidated as the region of lower economic growth on the planet.
This is stated by the new report of the institution, which provides for a regional expansion of just 2.1 % in 2025 and 2.4 % in 2026. Among the factors that stop the development, the low investment, a high indebtedness and an increasingly complex International environment, with commercial tensions and restrictions on financing stand out.
Despite the bleak tone of the report, Argentina appears as an exception. After two consecutive years of contraction (-1.6 % in 2023 and -1.8 % in 2024), the World Bank estimates a growth of 5.5 % by 2025, driven by macroeconomic standardization. The figure represents a remarkable improvement against the previous forecast, which was 4.2 %, according to the report published in October last year.
This figure is in tune with the estimated day by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which also provides for the same increase in the country’s GDP for this year.
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{{msj}} {{msj}}The growth planned for Argentina will support mainly in the external sector, given that internal consumption continues to lag behind the loss of purchasing power and caution of the labor market.
-For its part, the regional panorama is challenging: the debt ratio on GDP is located at 63.3 % (compared to 59.4 % of 2019), and tax deficits remain high, pressured by high interest payments.
In addition, persistent inflation in developed countries complicates the margin of monetary maneuver in the region, while the growing commercial barriers threaten the industry relocation project and restrict access to global markets.
“The region faces winds against significant and needs to promote bold reforms to increase productivity, improve infrastructure and create quality jobs,” said Carlos Felipe Jaramillo, vice president of the agency for Latin America and the Caribbean.
“Although the projections for Colombia (from 2.1 % to 2.4 %) and Peru (from 2.6 % to 2.9 %) were adjusted, there were cuts in estimates for Mexico (which would increase 1.5 % to be stagnant at 0 %) and for Chile (from 2.5 % to 2.1 %),” said the manager.
Within this framework, the report highlights the need to diversify export destinations, expand the offer of services and advance postponed structural reforms: education, infrastructure, innovation and competition rules. “Foreign trade and direct investment remain key, but require a more agile and competitive environment,” said William Maloney, chief economist of the agency.
On the other hand, the World Bank warns that although monetary poverty fell slightly (from 25 % in 2023 to 24.4 % in 2024), inequality remains high, with a Gini coefficient of 49.9 %. The agency suggests that the new challenges – such as the adoption of artificial intelligence and energy transition – imply risks, but also opportunities if countries manage to adapt their workforce and productive structure. (With TN information)
