Two weeks after the Buenos Aires legislative elections, the majority of consultants in electoral campaigns and surveyers argue that Leandro Santoro (now Buenos Aires) heads the intentions of vote, with the official Manuel Adorni (La Libertad advances) and Silvia Lospenato (Pro), a short distance, according to some consultants, already more distance, according to others. Specialists coincide with two data that make it difficult to anticipate what will happen. The first is that the Buenos Aires electorate is characterized by deciding at the last moment and, the second, that no one knows how many people are going to vote, which alters the contest very strong. Several elements dominate the situation: the strong fragmentation of the right; The pull between those who want the election to be a plebiscite for or against the government of Javier Milei and those who try to place the debate on essentially Buenos Aires issues such as works, security, cleanliness. Despite obstacles, Page/12 He spoke with ten of the best known consultants. And the consultants risked numbers and opinions.
The Spanish Civil war and CABA
“We know the meaning of this election, it looks metaphorically to the Spanish civil war,” Eduardo Fidanzaof polyriarchy. The weapons that will be used later in the World War will be tested. According to our polls, Santoro marches ahead and second place is even, between the lla and pro, around 20 points, Larreta has 10 and marra about 5. But relativize the polls, there are two weeks, so that they are just a photo of today. Mauricio Macri plays his political validity, his cousin governance and the Milei brothers the expertise for political construction. Many reasons to turn a local choice into a crucial competition. And something else: if in the capital of Argentina, which today is the beautiful girl of the international ultra -right, will win Peronism, perhaps many will recalculate. ”
Can there be a vote progress?
“It is an election in which the first place today has it Facundo Nejamkis From Opinina Argentina-, secondly, Adorni is very close, third, far below 20, the pneenate and then you have Rodríguez Larreta with about 10. The rest of the squad is below, including Marra that I do not see it power at this time. The election is defined by the confluence of three trends that may have greater or lesser gravitation, one is how much the fear that Kirchnerism wins the city of Buenos Aires in the non -Peronist universe. That is, if any candidate, for example adorni, can overcome the fragmentation of the vote against Peronism. The second trend is that there is a progressive vote, punishment for Milei and Macri. That can make Santoro upload beyond 30 points. And the third alternative is that the PRO defends the scrolls he has in CABA and can attract voters he lost. The problem there is Rodríguez Larreta’s attraction. ”
The biggest difference
Analogies is the consultant who receives the greatest differences to two weeks of the election. “Leandro Santoro 29.6 percent; Silvia Lospenno 20.4; Manuel Adorni 17.9; Rodríguez Larreta 8.8 percent; Marra 7 percent. -They are the numbers that today points out today Marina Acostathe voice of the consultant. Those are the data of our last survey. I would observe three issues. The first: the preferences structure is similar to that of the 2023 choice. The second, there is no useful vote for adorni or for the people in the sense of ‘winning Kirchnerism’. The third, the right -wing vote is divided between the Lla and the PRO. On the other hand, the level of participation is still an unknown. “
What about 50 percent?
Roberto Bacmanhead of the CEOP, focuses on the analysis on what is happening with the 50 percent that at some point took the right and centrode right in CABA. “The electoral scenario is divided into three sets, the space of the right and the center -right, which represents about 50 percent of the electorate, which with the emergence of Lla To Milei. But they are opponents that Santoro can add. ”
Of garbage to the plebiscite
Raúl Timermanfrom opinion group, marks an evolution of the Buenos Aires campaign. “It is an election that began raising in municipal terms, garbage, smell in the streets, the state of hospitals, the state of schools, the underground line, that is, full of promises and fault verifications of the city. But from the approach of Adorni is Mileiit is intended to change the center: it is Milei or Kirchnerism. I believe that Santoro has to turn to that side, installing that the government represents hatred and cruelty, Santoro is already doing it. The other thing that has been intelligent is to part It is now Buenos Aires. According to the latest surveys, it seems that Santoro has to compete in a kind of technical draw with Adorni. From the moment the spokesman began to be planted as a candidate, he has been separating from the pine trees. They would be Santoro-Istrni in the first place, Third Lospennato, then Rodríguez Larreta, then Marra ”.
They lose the officials
“I see possible a defeat of the national and city ruling-Gustavo Córdoba of Zuban-Córdoba consultants-after the debate, it seems to me that the undesonable advantage that Santoro has. The dispute remains for second place, fights very even and competitive, is consolidated. National.
Anyone can win
Santiago Giorgettaof projection, considers that “we are facing a four -quarter choice. A room Santoro close to 25 points, individually heading the grid. Another room, lla with adorni, that he personally measures 20 points, but the space measures 27. There would be to see if there is drag or not: that’s why the campaign Adorni is Milei. The third quarter, the pro, with the pine. The same happens something similar to LLA: the candidate measures 17, 18 points on her own, but the space reaches 25. We will also see if there is drag or if the individuality of Santoro is imposed. The fourth quarter is headed by Larreta with 6, 7 points of intention to vote. He steals a very interesting percentage of the PRO. Ramiro Marra steals 4, 5 points linearly to Adorni. And who puts a roof to Santoro? Kim and Abal Medina. What is the peculiarity we see? Is that any of these three can leave first or can leave third. Anyone can win this choice. ”
A very particular electorate
Analía del Francoof the Consultores Franco, emphasizes the vote tradition of the Buenos Aires. “The CABA electorate defines his vote at the last moment, so that the alternatives are open. It is clear that it is defined among the candidates postulated by Peronism, by Milei and by Macri. The president moved his chips and tries to give a thrust to his list. For me, for now. You need to maintain the choice at the local level, that is, that city issues are discussed. ”
The fragmentation of the right
“The elections in CABA show a preferences structure dominated by the fragmentation of the right -concludes Artemio López, at the head of Equis- Lospennato, Adorni, Yamil Santoro, Paula Oliveto, Ramiro Marra and Larreta divide the same electorate that originally accompanied the coalition that has governed Caba for 18 years. This is an unequivocal symptom electoral. Projection On April 15, he heads vote preferences with 23 percent, followed by Adorni with 19 and Lopenato with 17 ”.
As you can see, a good part of the consultants locate Santoro in the lead, but it is necessary to see how a series of questions evolve, which are key. The first, how many people will vote. In Santa Fe, on April 13, only 55 percent of the register voted. The question is: Who would benefit few voters? In general, logic indicates that the least radicalized, that is, would favor Santoro, adorni and the left. But we must also bear in mind that absence in CABA is usually less than verified inside. The other unknown has to do that the Buenos Aires decide their vote at the end. We will have to see if the campaign becomes hotter, who benefits from the greatest hardness and, what usually happens, that the games with less votes lose flow due to the useful vote: in favor or against the contestants who can win.
