Buenos Aires – the agricultural complex, which in 2024 exported for US $ 30 billion (US $ 24 billion in the change market and the rest in the CCL), It could reach US $ 50 billion in ten years, According to an optimistic scenario prepared by the Rosario Stock Exchange, which raises different variables that could take the Argentine countryside to its greatest potential.
A base scenario would lead to exports to US $ 33,000 million, which does not imply a great jump compared to 2024 already the US $ 30,000 million that the institution estimates for this 2025.
Of happening, It would not be the only industry with similar numbers. For that date, the gas and oil sector aspires to be close to that amount of exports, product of the increase in external crude oil sales and also for LNG projects.
The BCR report analyzes the variables that can lead to the jump in exports, by projecting how much Argentina could produce if all producers adopted the best available technology and the best agronomic management practices existing today. And the answer leads to an increase of US $ 17.2 billion compared to the base stage. That jump would be to add almost a new soybean complex to exports, a complex that added to US $ 19,000 million in 2024.
“This scenario is not intended to be a realistic projection in the short term, but rather an exploration tool that allows you to dimension the impact that would have a massive adoption of technology on Argentine productive capacity,” clarifies the BCR.
There are three major changes that should occur in the sector to be able to make that jump in exports.
#1 Infrastructure improvement and cost reduction
This first change includes an improvement in routes and paths used for grain transport, as well as an increase in the participation of rail transport to the detriment of the truck, and a greater use of internal river transport through barges.
In that sense, a second aspect appears: Hydrovia. The report evaluates deepen the trunk navigable route to timbues, achieving A cost reduction due to exported ton and increasing the efficiency of river transport.
These improvements would raise exports to US $ 35,720 million, US $ 2,560 million more than on the base stage.
Hydrovy of ParanáA cargo ship in a port of the Paraná River in Rosario, Argentina.
#2 Retention elimination
To reach US $ 50,000 million, The analysis adds to infrastructure improvements the impact it can have on the agricultural business The gradual elimination of export rights (DEX) For all modeled products. The BCR is a decreasing trajectory of retentions over four years, until its total elimination in the fifth year of simulation.
“This change translates into a direct increase in the price received by the producer (net price), improving its gross margin and, thereforeaffecting surface assignment decisions and technology use ”says the report. In addition “it improves the competitiveness of Argentine products in international markets, which can lead to greater export dynamism.”
As a result, the increase in the area sown and productionwill translate into an increase of US $ 8,040 million of exports compared to the base scenario.
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#3 Investment in Technology
The third element that would allow the field a considerable increase in its production, with reduced costs, is the investment in the most efficient and advanced technologies.
This third point considered by the BCR assumes that all producers “High -performance technological packages access and apply, including improved seeds, efficient water management and nutrients, conservationist practices and precision agriculture.”
These changes would allow to raise soybeans to 71.10 million tons around 2035, against 48.21 of 2024. In the case of wheat, the jump would be from 15.85 million tons to 32.47 million tons. And in corn, from 57.59 (MT) to 135.71 (MT).
In this way, and including the three improvements, Total exports reach US $ 50,430 million, US $ 17,270 million more than on the base stage (+52%).
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And the base scenario?
Away from the optimistic projection, the BCR also made a base scenario projection, in which the productive structure remains stable along the projection horizon, without substantive changes in the intensity of the technological package and with the same level of infrastructure growth with respect to total production.
It also assumes a continuity of the withholdings and the current scheme towards the end of 2024 and an exchange gap of 40%. The result is US $ 33,159 million in exports around 2035. By eliminating the exchange gap in the calculation, The estimate amounts to US $ 34,500 million.
How much will Argentina export in 2025
According to the BCR, based on current prices and tons, “The sector would contribute US $ 30.8 billion in the change market.” The number is reached when calculating a total grain production for the current campaign of 127.5 million tons, “Far from the more than 143 mt that were projected based on the area planted when the plantings were launched”and below also the 134 mt of the previous campaign.
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