In November 2024, a work of Pablo Picasso entitled The statuary He went auction with a sales estimate of 30 million dollars. The hammer fell much earlier: it was sold for 22.5 million.
That episode, occurred during an unequal week in the main auction houses of New Yorkanticipated what would end up confirming the Art Market Report 2025prepared by Art Basel y UBS: The world market of art and antiques lost 12% of its valueuntil total 57.5 billion dollarsand registered his Third Greater Contraction in Fifteen Years.
After the postpandemic rebound that promoted sales between 2021 and 2022, the year 2024 consolidated the descending trend initiated in 2023, when the market had already lost 4% of its volume. The main reason, according to the report prepared by the economist Clare McAndrewwas the weakness of the high value segment, that is, the most expensive pieces, many of them of contemporary artists.
That area was the most affected by the fall in demand, with a decrease in 36% in auction salesuntil 1.4 billion dollarsthe lowest level since 2018.
“Buyers lost their appetite because of the risk,” Mcandrew said. “Collectors are no longer interested in new names. They just want works by consecrated artists.” That reluctance to the unknown explains that many galleries depend more and more on their three best -selling artists, in front of a much more selective shopping environment.
The decline of the market was not homogeneous. While the total value of sales fell, the amount of transactions grew by 3%reaching 40.5 million operations worldwide. This paradox is due to the progress of the medium and low price segments: works with prices below 50,000 dollars That, according to the report, they showed a “more democratic” activity and less vulnerable to economic volatility.
This change was also reflected in the performance of the operators: Galleries with income below $ 250,000 they registered a growth of 17% in their sales, while those that invoice more than 10 million They suffered a 9%drop.
At the geographical level, the contraction hit almost all regions. Chinathat in 2023 he had shown signs of recovery, he abruptly fell 31%until 8,400 million dollarsits lowest figure since 2009. The setback is attributed to the economic slowdown, the real estate market crisis and a weakened internal demand.
In USAwhich is still the largest market in the world with 43% participation, sales descended a 9%accumulating two consecutive years of low and totaling 24.8 billion dollars. The political uncertainty about the presidential elections was one of the factors that affected the confidence of the buyers.
In Europathe panorama was also negative. France 10% fell and United Kingdom 5%. However, the latter managed to recover his place as Second Global Marketcon 10.4 billion dollarssurpassing China and representing 18% of the world market.
The report highlights a notable difference between marketing channels. The public auctions They fell 25% in value, while private sales organized by auction houses grew a 14% Interanual. This turn reflects the most reserved behavior of buyers and the search for discretion in large transactions.
In parallel, the Online sales They decreased by 11%, to 10.5 billion dollarsalthough they maintained a share of the 18% of the total markettwice as before the pandemic.
Beyond economic data, the report warns about a fundamental concern: the Aging of the collector’s public. According to one of the merchants consulted, “young people no longer buy paintings. With the outbreak of the bubble of contemporary art, most buyers are over 60 years.”
In that context, experts consider to attract a new group of wealthy people who still did not venture into art. The challenge is how to get to that public outside the traditional circuits.
Not everything was negative. An encouraging signal is the 3% increase in sales of women artists In the primary market, indicating a slight opening towards a greater diversity of supply.
Anyway, the report concludes that the art market, although resilient, fails to overcome the peak achieved in 2014despite the fact that the global wealth among the ultra rich kept growing.
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