In the last weeks of Commercial War And political over -up by the president of the United States, Donald Trump, some analysts moved away from the noise to repair in the background current. The Evolution of the dollar It is less exaggerated than that of the bags, but it is revealing.
The dollar index (which measures its value linked to a basket of foreign currencies) has fallen by 8% in what we have been for a year and more than 4% in the last month. There is another fact that the White House will keep in its doses: the dollar has gone from representing 70% of the world reserves At the beginning of the 21st century to just under 58% at the end of 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The global currency par excellence has lost power And that has implications for the American and world economy as important as tariffs.
“We may be attending the beginning of a Erosion of key pillars of the global financial systemsuch as the US dollar as a reserve currency and the US public debt as an asset free of risk par excellence, “the principal investigator at the Royal Elcano Judith Arnal Institute in The time of 1.
Recently, the president of the American Economic Advisors Council, Steve Miran, has talked about his reluctance to the dollar as reserve, which considers that it serves for other countries to “take advantage” of their “blood, sweat and tears.” But neither can it deny its benefits for US finances and, therefore, they put a price.
“If other nations want to benefit from the American geopolitical and financial umbrella, they must do their part and pay the part that corresponds to them“said the counselor. That ‘price’ is already known these days: accepting tariffs, buying more products from the United States, increasing defense expenditure, relocating in the country and buying US debt.
However, often, economists express reluctance on Trump’s strategic approaches. “Many times they are contradictory“, values the doctor in economics and researcher at the Valencian Institute for Economic Research (IVIE), Francisco Alcalá, in a conversation with RTVE.es.” One reads some documents and sometimes they seem that the dollar is appreciated and maintained with a strong currency and two pages after it depreciates. Anyway, how to blow and sip at the same time. “
The possible effects for the US
One of the declared objectives of the US President is to pass From a commercial balance deficit to one with surplus And for this, tariffs are as useful as the devaluation of the dollar. Because? Because how much less power has a currency, the more expensive it is to buy outside.
“The United States problem is that it has been with very strong external deficits for three decades and that creates instability and dependence from abroad,” says economist Juan Francisco Martín Seco in the program End of the month RNE.
Who was general secretary of the Treasury of Felipe González and Coordinator of Economics of the United Left of Julio Anguita remembers that this vulnerability was One of the 2008 crack causes And that the former president Joe Biden corrected the tariffs that Trump introduced in his first stage, which gives a “point of reason” to the tycoon, despite his “elephant in a pot.” “But If the dollar loses that reserve value roleit is unquestionable that this can give you problems, “adds Martín Seco. And the recipe comes with side effects.
“It collides with the aim of increase investments and capital entry “, Clarifies the doctor in Economic Sciences at the Complutense University of Madrid, Mónica Melle, who also finds “contradictory” the Washington Plan. Melle explains that the US economy has benefited all these years from the “statute of exceptionality” that assumes that the dollar is the reserve currency, “the main asset for saving the rest of the world.” According to the Letta report, 300,000 million euros in European investments come out every year to the United States.
“If there is effectively a surplus balance, the increase in export competitiveness and the decrease in imports will weaken the dollar,” he concludes. So, How will you capture income, on the other hand, its 123% debt of the gross domestic product (GDP)?
“Another of Trump’s promises is that it will reduce taxes to Americans. But with the enormous deficit that the United States has, that is very difficult to quadra. It is at the limit that there may be serious financial problems in international markets due to the large debt that has already been issued and that still emits,” reflects Alcalá, of the IVIE.
To leave the accounts, Trump is confident in raising with tariffs, however, the devaluation of the dollar has no collection effect. “I don’t think [la depreciación de la moneda] Now it is due to a specific strategy. I think it is due to a Loss of confidence in the economy North American and its leaders, “says the professor, who warns that if debt holding countries begin to reduce US bonds of their portfolios, the interest rate for the United States will increase.
All this adds to the direct effects of tariffs, as an elevation of costs for the American industry and the losses caused by uncertainty in markets. “There are already analysts and studies services that alert a possible stagflation, that is, at the same time inflation and recession,” says Melle.
Bad for Latin America, an “opportunity” for the EU
Although it cannot be known yet if Trump’s turn is definitive or a pulse in its negotiation strategy, a hypothetical change in American politics will also affect other countries. The first injured from a dollar devaluation would be the economies Latin Americanespecially dependent on the ‘green ticket’.
On the other hand, “the European Union can favor us in the issue of capitals. It can make it more interesting than That savings stay in Europeif we are able to offer attractive investments to investors and also generate a European capital market that has the liquidity and flexibility that the United States capital markets have right now, “says Melle, of the UCM, and asks” to demolish barriers “in the single market to facilitate it.
Judith Arnal, of the Roy An “opportunity” for the EU. “It can help us to make our assets and, above all, that German public debt still takes more strength as risk -free active. And it can also help reinforce the international role of the euro in the global financial system,” said the economist on TVE.
On the other hand, Francisco Alcalá, of the IVIE, points out that a devaluation would reduce the purchases of the products nominated in dollars such as oil, which a also positive effect for inflation of the EU, although the general price index will rise if they end up imposing tariffs. Like the rest of the analysts, he considers that the twenty -seven response must be cautious and unitary.
Do we get closer to a “paradigm change”?
If these falls in the value of the dollar and confidence in American bonds deepen, economists talk about a “Paradigm shift” In the global financial system, but they find many nuances. Melle remembers that we can still attend more script by Trump and that the reason is none other than the dispute for the Hegemony with China. Alcalá does not expect “radical changes”, but a slip towards another way of organizing international movements and payments.
Instead, Greek economist and politician Yanis varoufakis It is more blunt. In an article published in February 2025 in his blog, he prevailed in Trump’s “master plan”, in his opinion, more ambitious and calculated than his “centrist critics” want to see.
“With tariffs, on the one hand, and the threat of removing the United States security shield (or displaying them) on the other, [Trump] He believes he can get most countries to accept. The fact that? A substantial appreciation of your currency without liquidating your long -term dollars, “Varoufakis adventure.
For the author, the tycoon looks in the long run A new bipolar world, giving the multilateralism launder: “A side protected by US security at the expense of an appreciated currency, the loss of manufacturing plants and the forced purchase of US exports, including weapons”, and another, “strategically closer perhaps of China and Russia”, but that provides regular tariff income to the United States.
That resonates with the words of the Trump chief advisor collected at the beginning of this article: “If other nations want to benefit from the US geopolitical and financial umbrella, they must do their part and pay the part that corresponds to them“The question is in itself Washington’s strategy will succeed or find the crises that the market threatens. It also needs to know how China will respond.
