The IMACEC grew more than expected in March, which resulted in an expansion of 2% in the first quarter. The doubt is whether this rhythm could be kept at the end of the year given the impact of the tension generated by the rise in tariffs decreed by the United States and responded, especially by China, which has the world in suspense.
The smiles returned in March, but the doubt is how much they could last. The monthly indicator of Economic Activity (IMACEC) rose 3.8% in relation to the same period of 2024, a somewhat above -expected and sufficient figure for the expansion of the first quarter to reach 2% per year.
Although in the result informed by the Central Bank, the additional business day with which he had the third month of the year was decisive, The measurement without this effect also suggested a dynamism that valued the market. In fact, the de -stationalized variation was 0.8% compared to February and 2.2% in annual terms.
Determinants in this performance were the advances of mining (4.3%), manufacturing industry (6.1%), commerce (8.9%) and services (2.7%).
And the impulse, as pointed out by the head economist of Finntual, Priscila Robledo, allowed more than compensating the monthly point of 0.6% in February, A period beaten by the calendar effect (in 2024 it had been leap) and by the massive blackout suffered by the country on the 25th of that month.
Vital in his opinion was mining and more auspicious, it is that it is an effect that could persist. This, since the Scotia report raised, The high dynamism of the item was due to a recovery of copper production due to maintenance and interruptions in previous months, so they do not expect reversions in the coming months in this line.
In parallel, personal services could respond to the increase in care in health services.
With this, said Scotia, “the IMACEC reached its maximum level of desestationalized in the historical series, as did the services.”
Another wind in favor identified was the increase in public investment of 13% annually in real terms during the first quarter. According to the figures of the Dipres, the capital expenditure registered an advance of 18.5% with respect to the approved law, being the highest level of execution since 2010.
But, at the same time, different economists warned about the transitory flight that the trade could be representing, “where the thrust of the purchases of Argentine tourists still persists, an effect that should be modeled in the coming months,” said Coopeuch’s report.
The doubts and the rate
Precisely, what all analyzes notice is that the future behavior of the Chilean economy is subject to the back – even uncertain – that would cause The tariff increase promoted by the United States as of April 2, the baptized “Day of Liberation”, a date that has marked a Zigzag of events, including a hard response in the same sense of China.
“While the economy has shown greater dynamism since the end of last year -supported by exports, tourism and machinery -, We anticipate a deceleration in the coming months, due to the deterioration of the international environment and the fading of positive transitory factors”Banco Santander said.
In between the noise derived from the calendar will persist. For example, The first calculations for the IMACEC in April are between 1.5% and 2.5% annual -plagued by Scotia -and 1.7% -of Coopeuch-, given the high base of comparison of the same month of 2024 (4%)which had three more business days in his favor; In addition to the fact that now included Holy Week.
Despite this, the projections for the expansion of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year and the next one does not distance much of 2% that also speaks of the calculation of the trend of the Central Bank.
And before the 1.8% copeuch forecasts, the improvement applied by the Gemines Studies Manager, Alejandro Fernández, to his Projections for 2025 GDP from 1.9% to 2.0% and 2026 from 2.0% to 2.1%respectively.
These numbers assume that entering the second semester will begin to feel the effects of the international deceleration, “which can be more pronounced to what is being anticipated considering the very violent United States tariff shock”, He said.
In the face of the future, as added the Head of Economics and Strategy of Zurich AgF, Diego Valda, factors such as inflation and Interest rates levels will be decisive to sustain that increase around 2% at the end of the year.
While in his opinion, global uncertainty could deteriorate global economic activity, negatively affecting the external sector in Chile; From Scotia they said that the GDP growth scenario of the Central Bank “is not in check.”
At this point, they pointed out that the estimates of the June Monetary Policy Report (IPOM), the issuing entity “will find a growth higher than the estimate, than It will compensate for the lowest external impulse and the downward review in world growth which would lead to maintaining the growth of GDP 2025 between 1.75% and 2.75%”.
In any case, Robledo stressed the importance of the central taking the numbers of March “with tweezers”, considering that it is a photo prior to the “day of liberation.” “Recent figures are consistent with the current neutral monetary posture of the central. We are still waiting for the entity to cut its rate twice towards the end of the year”He said.
Valda, whose base scenario considers an expansion of GDP around 2.2% this year, considered “unlikely a TPM cut at the next June meeting”, although forward he anticipated two of 25 base points.
More categorical, Econsult’s economic analyst, Carolina Krefft, considered that monetary policy “has space to be more expansive in the short term.” This, in the understanding that the tariff conflict would not necessarily have an inflationary effect in the country.
Given this, he said that the greatest risk to weigh now for the Central Bank should be the slightest dynamism in the activity. To reinforce this point, he repaired that if you look at the annualized quarterly growth data -as the United States is used -the result gives 2.2%, but when excluding the mining sector it is moderated to 1.5%, below the trend of 2%.
