Mexico City. The Mexican economy would have fallen 0.4 percent in the first quarter of this year, which means that technically the country has fallen into recession, Citi said Wednesday.
At a press conference, Julio Ruiz, chief economist of Citi Mexico, recalled that in the fourth quarter of last year the Mexican economy recorded a contraction of 0.5 percent.
With this figures, explained the specialist, Mexico has fallen into technical recession, which in broad strokes means having registered two consecutive quarters with contractions in the economy.
However, the bank does not expect Mexico to close the year in a negative way, as it foresees a slight growth of 0.2 percent, which still depends, up to the loss, on the impact that the United States commercial policy may have.
This commercial policy, based on the implementation of tariffs by President Donald Trump, said Ruiz, has been reflected in a high uncertainty that has already caused pauses in investment decisions, so the bank expects that this year there is a fall of 0.8 percent in the investment.
For the economist, this uncertainty will continue until the renegotiation of the T-MEC is achieved, so it would be best to be advanced and not to be given until 2026, as planned.
In this sense, the Bank expects the United States to press Mexico to impose tariffs from products and China, or put much more strict rules of origin, with the aim that the country stops importing inputs and manufactures from the Asian giant.
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