In a financial world shaken by geopolitical tensions and market volatility, the question resurfaces: ¿Bitcoin can consolidate as a reserve of value to gold level? The answer is not simple, but recent data feed a construction narrative.
In recent weeks, Bitcoin showed a striking resilience in the face of stock market falls. While the S&P 500 index was dragged by macroeconomic uncertainty and the collateral effects of Donald Trump’s tariff policies, Bitcoin not only resisted, but, in a few days, he even went up -this week quoted around US $ 95,000-. For Santiago Siri, referent of the crypto ecosystem, this is due to its unique nature: “Bitcoin is foreign to the monetary policy of the United States and China. In a context of economic cold war, it is logical that it is positioned as an alternative refuge”.
That independence begins to be reflected in the numbers. According to Newhedge data, The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 – which averaged values greater than 0.7 in the last five years – fell to 0.6 in April. At the same time, The correlation with gold rose to 0.54. That is, Bitcoin is moving with greater synchrony next to the precious metal than with technological actions.
Maximiliano Raimondi, CFO de Lemon, focuses on this new convergence: “We see how Bitcoin aligned himself with gold, consolidating his place as a refuge of value. For the first time, the price of gold exceeded US $ 3500 per ounce [NdE: hoy experimentó una baja hasta US$3219] And, in parallel, the demand for tokenized digital gold and Bitcoin increased in our app”In Argentina, where inflation is part of the daily economic landscape, these types of assets charge a growing prominence.
However, Not everyone shares the same enthusiasm. José Ignacio Bano, financial analyst, although he recognizes the solidity that Bitcoin showed in the last stock market falls, he warns: “I still see it more as a speculative asset than as a reserve of value. Its volatility is still very high. For a conservative investor, that is a problem. “Bano insists in the basic principle of diversification:”The more volatile the asset, the lower its proportion must be in the portfolio. Bitcoin yes, but no more than 5%”.
From Bitso Argentina, its general director Julián Colombo admits that “It is premature to talk about definitive decoupling”, Although he points out that the process has already begun.“ Bitcoin is building its profile as ‘digital gold’ thanks to its scheduled scarcity, its resistance to censorship and its growing institutional adoption. In high inflation contexts and trusted crisis, more and more investors see it as a coverage in front of fiduciary currencies. ”
This thesis is reinforced by Sebastián Serrano, CEO of Ripio: “Bitcoin combines a limited offer with sovereign accumulation – as the US strategic reserve – and increasing flows towards ETF to the cash. All of that strengthens its narrative as digital gold and shows that it is maturing as an independent asset”.
The expert looks seems to coincide at one point: something is changing. Although Bitcoin does not reach the stability of gold nor has it emancipated completely from stock market humor, Its recent behavior shows signs of an evolution towards an asset class with its own life. A “decoupling” that, if consolidated, could mark the beginning of a new stage in global financial architecture.
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