The current account in March had a deficit of US $ 1,674 million, the largest in Javier Milei era. This happened in the prelude to the modification of the exchange rate regime that lowered the “crawling peg” to 1% and left the dollar float between bands, which It generated the fear of an abrupt jump in its price, causing excessive advancement of import payments.
The latter was evidenced in The imbalance in goods for US $ 456 million in the current account in March. In turn, on the side of the services, The red was US $ 799 million And, at this point Tourism contributed US $ 698 million from the total deficit, becoming The highest figure since 2018 for a third month of the year. To this they joined interest expenses for almost US $ 422 millionGMA Capital reported.
Thus, in March it was observed A reduction in currency settlements originated in charges of Exports (U $ S5,296 million) with respect to the first 2025 bimester, and A rise in import payments (US $ 5,752 million) compared to the same period. The accumulated of the quarter were at US $17,579 million YU $ S16,741 million, respectively indicated Outlier.
“during the previous two months, the monthly exchange current account deficit had been less than US $ 1,300 million. In this way, during the first quarter of 2025 the current exchange account was deficit at US $ 4,190 million, compared to the US $ 5,273 million surplus registered during the same 2024 period, “they said from Outlier.
In turn, from Gold valuesthey explained that it was Tenth month of exchange current account deficit that “consumed” almost the entire surplus was “consumed” achieved in the first 6 months of Javier Milei’s government “When import scheduling, high TCR and Bopreal placement helped get good exchange balances for the current account.”
In the case of the Financial account, the bleeding was US $ 1,892 millionfigure that can be contrasted with The surplus of US $ 440 million of the first bimester. “The fall of private indebtedness in foreign currency explained a good part of the result. Without exchange predictability, the dollar credit is paralyzed”explained a report from GMA Capital.
What will come in April and May
For April, experts warn that the monetary balance will feel The elimination of the Blend dollar since, under the previous scheme, There were 20% that was settled directly on the CCL and did not impact the exchange balance. This modification occurs precisely at the time of the year in which there is a higher currency entry through the thick harvest.
“As of April, The totality of the liquidated will directly impact the assets account, strengthening the current account. In addition, the beginning of the thick harvest and the validity of the temporal reduction in the retentions could increase the flow of foreign exchange in the coming months, “they explained from ACM.
In this consultant they also warned that while the highest planned export liquidation could partially relieve the availability of foreign exchange, the dynamics of Importing demand, the evolution of the real exchange rate and the behavior of expectations They will continue to be key factors to monitor to Evaluate the consolidation of the current account under the new scheme.
For its part, to Claudio Caprarulodirector of Analyticathe key in April is in Start seeing the consequences of reducing the exchange rate. “The effect is going to be biased both because it hit the middle of the month and because they were weeks of adaptation and uncertainty for the market with respect to how the exchange rate between the bands was going to behave and what was also going to be the reaction of the Central Bank, “he said.
The expert said that for the current account, May will be a more relevant month in terms of pulse. “In the April Financial Account, it will be a good thermometer of the demand for dollars of human people, the famous FAE,” he said.
Finally for the economist Sticky amilcar The April exchange balance will have a fairly dissimilar combination because the first 12 days was operated with a regime and the rest was already with the bands. “The first part with the high demand for goods imports and export retention before the imminent regime change. There the BCRA lost reservations rapidly. And the contribution had also been cut via credit in dollars that passed to pesos in the MLC, “he explained.
In the rest of the period the BCRA maintains neutral balance and international reserves vary by revaluation/devaluation of gold and yuan, added to the payment of government and BCRA debts (Bopreal). For Collante, The exchange balance with full functioning of the new scheme will be May.
“In April, the net shopping balance gave negative for US $ 851 million and then on the side of the financial account entered the IMF and international organizations. In addition in the assets it is necessary to clarify that you brought the offer that went to the blend and the formation of external assets will appear again in the exchange balance product of the retail purchase of dollars to the officer, “he closed.
Related news :