In the main offices of the Kremlin -where the president’s official residence works Vladimir Putin-, in the central nave of the main temple of the Catholic Church in the Vatican, and among the historical walls of the Oval Hall of the White House, a peace agreement has been woven for a long time to end the war in Ukraine that many analysts consider that more than a high fire, the eventual pact, mediated by the United States, looks more like a Kiev capitulation.
There is still no manifestation, but it transcended diplomats of which the AP news agency echoed agreed that the postwar scenario that is enlivened shows more than what receives.
Thus, the conjectures conclude that the eventual armistice promoted by Washington would end up favoring Vladimir Putin.
That explains, perhaps, why Donald Trump repeats without blushing arguments of the Kremlin, to the point that it is time to assume that Crimea is already part of Russia and that Ukraine must take off the head of the fixed idea of entering the organization of the North Atlantic Treaty (NATO).
Dasha Litvinova, correspondent of AP in Russia and in the community of independent states (CEI), composed of 11 former refuels of the once USSR, warns that in this strategic pressures of pressures, Zelenski has been impelled to negotiate from a position of growing weakness.
“In the center of the proposal is the transfer of territory. And what Ukraine hoped to obtain – as military protection, access to NATO and security guarantees – looks more and more distant,” says the journalist.
Washington tries to show compromise, but the most concrete gesture has so far been economical: this week signed an agreement that allows US companies to exploit Ukraine mineral resources. Zelenski celebrated it as an achievement after his meeting with Donald Trump in the Vatican, although in reality it seems more like a business opportunity than a sample of strategic support.
New world order?
To all this, in Russia, the official media celebrate the versions that transcend and the declarative incontinence of Trump. They no longer speak of isolation, but about dialogue between powers. Putin is satisfied and states that he is building “a new world order” with the United States. On that board, Ukraine seems to be relegated to a secondary role.
The envoy of the American president, Steve Witkoff, has just met at the Kremlin with Russian officials. It was a clear sign: Washington is willing to negotiate. The worrying thing is that there is no longer talk of whether Russia must withdraw from Ukraine, but how much territory will be allowed to keep.
That said: there is nothing signed yet, but the drafts that circulate indicate a trend: Trump presses Ukraine to give in, while Russia is offered to resume relationships, raise sanctions and even organize sporting events together.
The demands of both sides are clear. Ukraine does not want to give territory or compromise your safety. Russia demands to keep the occupied areas, prevent Ukraine entry into NATO and reduce its army. For now, there are no points of agreement, but the narrative has changed in a resounding way: negotiating with Putin is no longer seen as a concession, but as a strategic option.
Distrust
Zelenski does not trust Russian gestures. He said that the announcement of a high fire of 72 hours for May 8 is a “manipulation” of Putin to divide the Western allies. At the same time, Russian markets improve, ruble is strengthened, and foreign investors look at Moscow again.
To all this, concern grows. They consider who will replace Trump if he decides to retire from peace negotiations. If it will be France, Germany, the European Union or the Great Boneton.
The political leaders of the block know that military aid is not just a matter of money, it also requires political commitment, and that seems to be decreasing in Washington.
The US Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, tried to reassure everyone saying that the mining agreement demonstrates support to a free and sovereign Ukraine. But the facts show something else.
Thus, what is avizo is an eventual unequal truce, an imposed peace and a victory for Putin.
The situation painting, just over three years of the beginning of the war conflict in Europe, the future of Ukraine seems to hit an increasingly thin thread, with less allies, more pressures and an increasingly uncertain panorama.
