He this week’s chart It is commented by Isabel Sánchez Burgos, manager and selector of funds in Arquia Banca.
Gold has always been the protagonist of stories – real or fictitious – of conquerors, power, ambition … After the first findings of Christopher Columbus, there were several historical characters that were dazzled by this precious metal, although historians refer to Francisco Pizarro as the great architect of the greatest golden treasure in history in the conquest of America, which concluded with the overthrow and execution of the atohual.
Beyond intriguing stories about the conquest of America and the fury for the Dorado, which we do not forget would extend in time until well into the twentieth century, the truth is that, throughout history, gold has been synonymous with abundance. Also of refuge, especially at a time when economic or geopolitical uncertainty has invited investors to seek assets in which to feel safe against risk elements. The investment in gold – either in physical form (ingots, jewelry) or through financial assets (mining actions, funds, etc’s …) -, it has always been there, although it is in times of nervousness and fear, like the current one, when it resurfaces as a potential element of profitability for portfolios.
In recent months we have seen a vertical ascent of gold, having reached $ 3,500 an ounce, historical record. After this movement, we find a strong risk aversion generated by possible adverse effects on the world economy of tariff war; With the handicap that involves predicting the movements of a Donald Trump that has not only put the world upside down, but has even dared to suggest the dismissal of the president of the Fed. This concern about Powell’s independence, the continuous tensions between the United States and China, the signs of stress in the American debt market, or the war in Ukraine (whose purpose does not seem to be as close as Trump predicted), they have continued to support gold. Without forgetting a crucial element: purchases made by some central banks, such as China, which are replacing dollars of dollars with those of the yellow metal.
So far this year, gold rises more than 30% in base currency, to which add another 27% in 2024. At the same time, the loss of confidence in the American economy has led to the dollar – traditional active refuge – to reach minimum of 2022 compared to the euro (1.15eur/$), with a fall of more than 5% in April and more than 10% in 2025. Many investors are questioned if the American currency of the global financial system, it has reached a turning point, and if that will continue to benefit gold; While the divergence between the monetary policies of the ECB and the Fed – the first undertaking type sales and the second resisting it -, has continued to support the revaluation of the euro vs the dollar.
The historical decorting between dollar and gold seems to be working, this time, in favor of precious metal; although it has not always been so, And if the investor is guided for historical reasons when making their portfolio positioning decisions, perhaps a mistake. This is not a financial crisis, of liquidity, nor a worldwide pandemic … every moment requires its own perspective and its own analysis.
The role you can have on portfolios
On the other hand: Is this new gold fever sustainable? From Arquia we consider that, although in the short term there are still elements that can continue to support gold, some structural and other conjunctural ones (defolarization, purchases of central banks, political and economic uncertainty …), it is also true that the levels reached call caution. And, in any case, Those who consider it an attractive asset should see it as a diversifying element (no more than 5% in a portfolio), And never as speculation. Some great American banks have reviewed their forecasts: Goldman Sachs, for example, now sees gold at $ 3,700 by the end of 2025, while JP Morgan glimpses the $ 4,000 in the second quarter of 2026. But let’s not forget that gold could have a volatile evolution, linked to erratic (or not) Trump’s strategy, and the recovery of trump, and the recovery of trustee.
In the possible ways of investing in gold, we always recommend those that are implemented via IIC, which offer us some additional advantages, such as diversification, liquidity or professional management. There are investment funds that invest in mining companies (with revaluation this year greater than 40%), where correlation is not perfect, although it is true that the evolution of Gold impacts on the margins of the companies. There are also quoted products, in the form of etc’s (excess traced commodities), although in this case without the tax advantages of the investment fund. And there are multi-active funds that structural gold use in their portfolios, such as diversification (around 10% of their assets) and coverage in times of uncertainty; A more defensive option to take advantage of this new gold fever.
About the author
Isabel Sánchez is Porfolio Manager in Arquia Banca, where she specializes in portfolio management and selection of investment funds. Previously, Portfolio Manager was in Arquia Management and Financial Analyst in Arquia Private Banking, as a member of the Fund Analysis and Selection Team. In 2013 he became part of Profim (EAFI that was subsequently acquired by Arquia), from the investment & finance magazine, a means in which he worked since 1995. There he was responsible for the investment funds and coordinator of the “monthly investment funds”, monthly publication specialized in investment funds and pension funds.
Isabel has a degree in Information Sciences (Journalism) from the UCM and has a master’s degree in economic information. She is the author of several manuals and investment guides published by Inversor Ediciones.
