How serious is the risk?

Kosmos 482 was part of the ambitious Venera program of the Soviet Union, whose objective was to explore the planet Venus. His sister probe, Venera 8, managed to land successfully on the surface of the planet that same year, although due to a failure in the upper stage of the rocket, Kosmos 482 did not reach the necessary exhaust speed and was trapped in Earth’s orbit, where it remained for 53 years.

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Designed to withstand extreme temperatures and pressures 90 times higher than those of the Earth, the capsule has a robust thermal shield and a titanium structure that will probably allow it to survive the atmospheric re -entry. “It’s like a space bowling ball,” said Marlon Sorge, an expert in orbital waste from The Aerospace Corporation, to CNN.

The projections indicate that The reentry will occur between May 7 and 13with greater probability between 9 and 10. However, uncertainty persists even a few hours from the event, due to factors such as space climate and object orientation. Marco Langbroek, astronomer from the Technical University of Delft, warned that “even the same day of the reentry there will be great uncertainties.”

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The potential impact area is enormous: between 52 degrees of north and south latitude, which covers almost all of Africa, Australia, South America, Central America, southern Europe, much of Asia and the United States. The probability that it falls in a densely populated area is low, since more than 70 % of the earth’s surface is covered by oceans.

The probe does not contain nuclear materials and there is no evidence that it represents a serious chemical risk. However, since it is a capsule designed to withstand extreme conditions, experts warn that the ground could reach without disintegrating. “There is no reason for great concern, but nobody would want to hit her head,” the astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell wrote on his website.

According to The Aerospace Corporation calculations, The probability that Kosmos 482 causes deadly damage is one between 25,000, a figure considered very low in terms of spatial risk. Even so, the authorities recommend the population not to manipulate any suspicious object in case of finding it after the reentry, and report it immediately.

What differentiates Kosmos 482 from other fragments of space garbage is its longevity and design. It was not thought to disintegrate, but to conquer Venus. As National Geographic highlighted, it is an “orbital relic” whose resistance makes it a potentially complete projectile. And although it is unlikely that it causes harm, its unexpected fall serves as a reminder of the current challenges in space waste management.