In the conclave that Pope has chosen to Leo XIV this Thursday, the popular Roman saying has been relentlessly repeated: “Whoever enters Pope leaves cardinal.” It has ever been fulfilled, as with Pius XII, in 1939, or with Benedict XVI, in 2005, when the clearest favorites were selected in very fast conclaves, of three and four votes respectively. This has also been, four other scrutiny. But the chosen one has not been the most marked, Pietro Parolin, but the one who was the great candidate in the shadow, Robert Francis Prevost.
What happens in the conclave is secret, although everything ends up, but the most plausible hypothesis, which all analysts point out, is that a mechanic similar to that of 2013 has been repeated, the choice of Francisco, when the choice of an Italian, Angelo Scola, but the surprise arose. It turned out that he did not have so many supports and collapsed quickly to an alternative candidate very worked in the shadow, the future Argentine Pope. Five votes were enough, one more than this time.
Parolin also came something touched. There were curses about his fragile health, denied by the Vatican; His management of the case of Cardinal Angelo Becciu was questioned, when he took two Francisco documents that ratified the veto to which he entered, and the conservative sector did not forgive him to be responsible for the controversial agreement of the Holy See with China.
It is likely that the first vote was fatal for Parolin, who for days have been attributed between 40 and 50 votes, at least. If he obtained less, the downturn would have had the same effect as with Scola. And the most possible is that among the many papables who were handled as an alternative, it was Premost who stood out with a good package of initial votes. Actually, he was the strongest candidate, the one who had the least, and with support in a broad spectrum, not purely progressive.
The most plausible thing is that Prevost received support from the United States and all of Latin America, as it brings together the entire continent in its figure. That is 36 votes. In addition, it is foreseeable that many European cardinals will be supported, which are 53, in addition to the curia, of which it is part. And in general, it will have been well seen by many of the sloping southern world and all those who wanted a continuator of Francisco.
On the eve of the conclave, it was speculated in Rome with an alliance of forces between Parolin and the Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle, for a subsequent distribution of power in which Cardinal Filipino could have the Secretary of state. In theory these pacts are prohibited, but it is not a secret that they are made. It is also said in Rome, abounding in the popular saying, that many enter the potato conclave, but would settle for a state secretariat. In any case, if there was an operation of this type, it would have failed. Tagle also arrived in decline to the conclave: his management in Cáritas Internacional had been criticized, which gave him a disastrous manager.
What is certain is that in the first and second vote on Thursday the painting was clear, and the moment of food would finish the vote with the last and decisive conversations to convince the undecided. The only unknown is whether Parolin decided to step back, aware that he had reached his roof, to transfer his votes to Prevost, or simply did not need and occurred anyway.
The last turn in the exchange of papers is that it was Parolin, precisely, as the highest authority of the Cardinal College in the conclave, who had to ask Prevost if he accepted the appointment. And he said yes. Then Leo XIV had him by his side when he went to the balcony of San Pedro.
Campaign in 2005 to achieve an Italian Pope
This time, with the majority commitment to Parolin in the previous days, a trend that began strongly in 2005 has also been repeated, when, after the first non -Italian Pope after centuries, Juan Pablo II, in Italy an overwhelming campaign was undertaken to return to tradition. The Italian press pushed for a Pope of this country, with several candidates, especially Dionigi Tettamanzi. Although in reality the favorite was Ratzinger.
In the conclave, according to later reconstructions, the truth is that Tettamazi had nothing to do and received two votes. Instead, Ratzinger was two competitors, the Jesuits Carlo Maria Martini and Jorge Mario Bergoglio, but decided to depart for the good and unity of the Church and not extend the conclave with a locking minority. Something similar may also have happened this time, if Parolin, confirming that he did not take off, decided to leave and transfer his votes to his rival. The speed of the conclave that ended on Thursday makes it possible for such a situation to have occurred, since no blocking maneuver seems to have emerged.
In fact, in 2005, the withdrawal of those who competed with Ratzinger was also due to the awareness that, if they closed the step without growing themselves, they would actually be eliminated, and then the door could be opened to a third candidate, perhaps worse, when they considered that the German cardinal was, after all, the best possible pope.
The versions diverge on whether Bergoglio turned away or separated it, because some historians argue that it was Martini, who had no good relationship with Cardinal Argentino, who went through the tables at the time of food to move his votes to the future Benedict XVI. Francisco, on the other hand, has counted after he asked not to vote him, because he suspected that they were only using him to close the step to Ratzinger and then emerged a candidate in the shadow.
2013, another Italian candidate
In 2013, the Italian press returned to the load with another compatriot, Angelo Scola, Patriarch of Venice, a disciple of Ratzinger, near the communion and liberation movement. It was a true media bombing, although it was a very Italian bubble, outside the country it looked absurd to return to an Italian Pope. That had been left behind. However, the assurance that he was practically done was such that after the White Smoking, the Italian Episcopal Conference issued a statement by error in which he already congratulated Scola. In the live transmission of the RAI, when Bergoglio went out to the balcony, a silence was made of a minute, because the script had jumped.
According to subsequent reconstructions, in the first vote, Scola took only 25 votes, compared to 12 from Bergoglio, but in the previous days it had been said by active and passive that he had at least 50. At that time his candidacy collapsed, he saw that he had inflated and could not grow anymore, and since the second, Bergoglio began to grow. The meal time, once again, was decisive to consecrate it. Actually, his name had been very worked in the previous days, but in the lower part of the pools.
Related news :