Chile, with 18.5 million inhabitants, has the highest aging rate in Latin America (14% are over 65 years old) and, according to the figures released on Wednesday by the National Statistics Institute (INE), based on Census 2024, less and fewer women are mothers, those who are less children and later in life. 56.6% of women between 15 and 49 have children, an average of 1.97 per mother. Both figures represent historical minimums and experts already alert the extinction of the demographic bonus -the population of working age is proportionally greater than the dependent. In this complex demographic scenario, immigration breaks, a population that has doubled in the last five years in the South American country until reaching 8.8% (just over 1,600,000). On average they are 33.5 years, five less than those born in Chile. Its presence can help strengthen the labor market, but the problem, sustain the scholars of the subject, is that they belong to the most vulnerable groups of society and urgent public policies for their integration.
The director of the Government School of the Catholic University, Andrea Repetto, warns that the new Chilean demographic panorama has implications for the labor market, economic growth and public finances, since you have to finance pensions and imply a different health expense, and possibly also in education if there are fewer children. “In the last 15 years, approximately 40% of the growth is due to greater employment and that has partially related to a demographic bonus, but it is ending. That is what these numbers are telling us,” he said in the INE offices during the launch of the 2024 census figures on fertility and migration.
“A set of diverse policies is needed: it is not a bonus, a tax reduction or only the crib room or only co -responsibility,” he said about the need to strengthen the formal labor market to eliminate the barriers that women face when they decide whether to have a child or not.
For David Bravo, director of the Survey and Longitudinal Studies Center of the Catholic University and an advisor to the INE, “the demographic bonus is over.” It is presented by the two edges, says: The aging index, which jumped more than projected (for every 100 people or less, there are 79 older adults) and the abrupt fall of fertility: 56.6% of women between 15 and 49 years have children, a decrease of 14.1 points since 1992, registering the greatest fall in the period 2017-2024 (9 points). “The known data already include migrants, who are relieving the problem, but it is not clear that they will relieve it in the future at the same rate,” he warns by phone.
One of the questions was how much migrants weigh in the Chilean population. In the last census, 2017, they reached 746,000, and in 2024 they reached 1,608,650 people. If the total proportional to the inhabitants by region is considered, foreigners are concentrated in the three regions to the north, where the country of origin is Bolivia, although practically throughout the rest of the territory they are Venezuelans. The population of the Caribbean country (669,408) surpassed Peru (233,432), which led the 2017 ranking. In third place Figure Colombia (197.813), followed by Bolivia (168,083) and Haiti (80,781).
Gabriel Borges, representative of the population team of the Latin American and Caribbean Demography Center (CELADE), said in the publication of the figures that in Chile, migration helps to cover the shortage of labor, mainly in agriculture and care sectors. “Demographically, the population of migrants is younger than that of non -migrants, so it has an impact of rejuvenation of the population, something important in the rapid aging context,” he said. “On the other hand, migrants represent the most vulnerable groups of the population. We must think public policies for the integration, inclusion and social protection of them,” he added.
In addition to reinforcing a border control so that migration is ordered, safe and legal, experts emphasize their incorporation into rights such as education, health and housing.
Bravo remarks that one of the challenges is in the camps, where, according to the figures it manages, 70% are migrants. It also sees the need to have an adequate record in the entrances of the border since, unless someone enters the country by plane, the records are manual. “The electronic record is not generalized and that makes the control of borders very complex, even those who legally enter. If long -term policies, such as pensions, will have a requirement of years in the country, there must be a real possibility of having that documentation,” he says.
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