Santiago, Chile – The Chilean economy has taken an unexpected and vigorous turn in March 2025, surprising analysts and lighting a spark of hope in a panorama that, until recently, seemed caught in caution. The Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMACEC), published this Friday, May 2 by the Central bank of Chile, registered a year -on -year growth of 3.8%, far exceeding the most optimistic projections that were around 3.1%, according to the Bloomberg survey. This rebound not only marks the best monthly performance so far this year, but also raises the growth of the first quarter to a 2%solid, a fact that invites you to rethink the stagnation narratives that have dominated the recent economic discourse.
The announcement, which resonated from the offices of the Central Bank in the heart of Santiago, arrives like a balm in a global context loaded with uncertainty. Factors such as the recovery of key sectors, a favorable calendar effect and an export impulse led by mining have converged to make this leap. But,This is a sustained takeoff or a passenger flash in the middle of geopolitical and commercial clouds? The answer is not simple, and the data opens a range of interpretations that range from government optimism to the prudence of experts.
A March of records: growth engines
The March IMACEC not only surprised by its magnitude, but also for its composition. In unstacted terms, economic activity grew 0.8% compared to February, which suggests a positive trend beyond seasonal fluctuations. Mining, a historic pillar of the Chilean economy, showed an advance of 5.4% year -on -year, driven by copper production, while the manufacturing industry matched that figure with 5.4%, highlighting food production and the contribution of fishing. The trade, on the other hand, shone with a 7.6%rise, reflecting a dynamism in domestic demand that has not been seen for months.
“This growth is a clear signalthat the economy is taking flight”Said the Minister of Finance, Mario Marcel, in a statement that sought to project trust without falling into triumphalism. From La Moneda, the Gabriel Buric government celebrated the data as a support for its reactivation policies, highlighting initiatives such as the Royalty Minero and the competitiveness agenda, which have facilitated the opening of markets such as China for agricultural products.”Chile is growing, and that is good news for everyone”, Said an official statement, accompanied by a video that quickly went viral.
Global context: lights and shadows
Chilean performance cannot be read in isolation. In a world where commercial tensions between the United States and China threaten to climb, and where the price of copper – the “salary of Chile” – faces pressures for a lower demand from the Asian giant, this 3.8% acquires a special nuance. The World Bank, in its April panorama, had projected a real GDP growth in Chile by 2025 around 2.1%, driven by exports and an investment recovery. The March data suggests that the country could be exceeding those estimates, at least in the short term.
Exports, especially miners, have been a lifeguard. The copper, whose price remains stable between 4 and $ 4.25 per pound according to Banco Santander projections, remains a key engine, supported by the global energy transition. To this is added an increase in the arrival of foreign tourists, a factor that the Central Bank highlighted as a dynamic in its March Monetary Policy Report (IPOM). However, risks such as the hardening of global credit conditions or internal political uncertainty before the November elections could stop this impulse.
Market voices: between enthusiasm and caution
The market reacted with a mixture of surprise and moderation. “It is a fact that exceeds expectations and gives a break to the economy,” said Juan Ortiz, economist at the Observatory of the Economic Context of the Diego Portales University, in an interview with El País Chile. However, Ortiz warned that “transient factors” such as calendar and punctual performance of some sectors could be inflating the figure. Vittorio Corbo, former president of the Central Bank, agreed on the need not to “celebrate so promptly”, arguing that the underlying trend still shows fragilities.
From the private sector, the reception was more warm. While the growth of trade and manufacturing is a positive signal, the construction – an investment thermometer – remains lagging behind, affected by interest rates that, although in descent, still weigh on credit. The March IPOM projected that inflation will converge at 3% only at the beginning of 2026, which suggests that the Central Bank will maintain a cautious monetary policy, with the monetary policy rate (TPM) by 5% for now.
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The growth of 3.8% is not only an economic number; It is a political weapon in an electoral year. The Boric government, which has faced criticism for lean growth in previous years (0.2% in 2023), finds in this fact an argument to counteract the opposition voices that have accused the Inaction Executive. Publications such as The Times in Spanish, in their recent edition, have highlighted this rebound as “a potential turning point” for the leftist administration, although with reservations. “Chile shows signs of economic life, but sustainability depends on how the government manages winds against global and internal demands,” says an analysis of the medium, citing world bank sources and the IMF.
From a journalistic approach, this IMACEC raises a dilemma for Puerto Ric: capitalize the data without falling into self -complacency. The opposition, led by figures such as José Antonio Kast and Evelyn Matthei, could subtract weight, attributing it to external or transitory factors, while the ruling raises him as proof of an effective strategy. The Times in Spanish underlines that the November elections will be a key thermometer: sustained growth could strengthen the ruling block, but any economic stumbling will revive criticism about persistent inequality (Gini of 43 points) and unemployment (8% projected by the IMF).
This unique analysis suggests that 3.8% is more than a fact; It is a mirror of the tensions between the official narrative and the structural reality. While the Government celebrates, the political challenge will be to translate this impulse into tangible benefits for citizens, a point where Chile has historically stumbled.
Conclusion: An takeoff with turbulence ahead
The growth of 3.8% in March is a breath of fresh air for Chile, but not a ticket assured to success. With a first 2%quarter, the country is better positioned than expected, but the fragility of domestic demand and external risks maintain suspense. For search engines such as Google and Google News, this story combines hard data, political analysis and a tone that invites reflection, ideal to position itself as a reliable source for humans and algorithms equally.
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