Some economic analysts in Chile begin to project a downward path for the country’s inflation And, even more, after the consumer price index (CPI) corresponding to April, which yielded a monthly rise of 0.2%, when the market projected a somewhat higher number (around 0.3%).
However, there is no uniform posture: Bloomberg Line collected forecasts ranging from 3.5% to 4.2% for December 2025.
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“The April IPC supports our most benign vision for inflation”indicates a report of Scotiabank Chile. The analysts of this financial firm expect that in July the annual inflation is below 4% (Currently, it is in 4.5%).
What can happen to the end of the year?
“We keep our annual inflation projection 2025 of 3.5% (December against December). We hope that, after the newly known April CPC, The market corrects something down the implicit inflation “, They expressed from Scotiabank.
Meanwhile, from the financial firm Co -op They stressed that The speed of the CPI has been showing “relevant” falls in recent months And they added that, practically It is at levels according to the 3% goal (± 1 percentage point).
According to Coopeuch, the above, added to the change in expectations after Liberation Day around key determining variables of inflation (activity, exchange rate, oil) “delivery greater conviction of that the inflation convergence process It is on the right track. ”
Finally, Coopeuch considered: “It is important to emphasize that the second round effects linked to electric shock remain limited.”
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However, not all eyes go in the same direction. A report recently published by Oxford Economics Chile He stressed that Chilean weight has appreciated 5% since the beginning of the yearalthough he has shown significant fluctuations in the midst of greater global uncertainty. This volatility represents up risks for the projection of Oxford inflation, since it is likely that exchange instability would persist throughout the year.
In addition, the economic activity data of March pointed out a strong dynamism in the first quarter, which reinforces the assessment of upward risks.
“Therefore, we do not expect the Central Bank of Chile to resume its cycle of feat cuts until December, given the combination of solid economic performance, an inflation that is maintained above the goal of 3% and persistent global risks that will probably keep the cautious council for longer,” they said from Oxford.
Given this scenario, Oxford analysts indicated that Its inflation projection for the end of the year is maintained at 4.2% year -on -yearsince they expect inflation to continue decreasing in the second semester of 2025 and that energy prices are moderate.
What to expect for May?
From preliminary calculations, Coopeuch analysts project that May inflation is around 0.1% monthly.
What left the April CPI?
The April CPI recorded a monthly increase of 0.2% (0.19% with two decimals), slightly under historical averages for that month. With this result, 12 months inflation passes from 4.9% in March to 4.5% in April.
For the underlying part, this month the IPC SAE had a monthly rise of 0.4% and increased 3.7% in 12 months. For its part, the IPC without volatile registered a monthly variation of 0.4%, so that its annual variation is 3.5%. The monthly variations of both underlying analytics were consistent with historical averages for one month of April.
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