In summary
Bitcoin ETF flows in the US. UU. They have exceeded $ 3,000 million in the last five business days, with data from Standard Chartered that also show that gold ETFs have suffered an exit of $ 1 billion.
Writing in a note for investors, Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick also stressed that the gap between Bitcoin and Gold ETF flows has reached $ 4,000 million, which is the largest thing that has been since the week of the presidential elections in November in the US.
Bitcoin ETFs are surpassing their gold counterparts because BTC is “better coverage than gold against strategic reassignment of cryptoactive outside the US. UU.,” Kendrick wrote.
A sign of this reallocation is evident in how the yields of the US Treasury bonds have been increasing, which in turn is a sign of a decreasing demand.
“The US Treasury term premium. UU. (Which has a nearby correlation with BTC) is at its highest level in 12 years,” Kendrick wrote. “The analysis of the time suggests that the US -based investors can be looking for non -American assets.”
Michael Metcalfe de State Street Markets offered a similar analysis this morning in his own note to investors, writing that “the long -term demand of foreign investors for the 30 -year treasure bonds has been below the average all year, but ended April with weekly flows close to a minimum of five years.”
It is this decrease in the demand for assets based on the US. Kendrick added that recent attempts in the recent commercial war have softened interest in gold.
“Bitcoin, by its nature, is decentralized,” he told Decrypt. “As a result, it is the definitive protection against tradfi problems, whether they come from the private sector (for example, SVB collapse in March 2023) or the public sector (perhaps now, with the Treasury term premium suggested by suggesting [lo] same)”.
-On the contrary, in Kendrick’s opinion, gold serves a different purpose, “specifically as coverage against geopolitical problems, whether physical or related to commercial wars.”
So because there are signs that the US are now willing to negotiate with China a possible commercial agreement, and because both nations have included exemptions in their reciprocal tariffs, gold has suffered a relative blow in recent days.
But because the markets are still concerned about the General Directorate of the US economic policies., Bitcoin’s demand could remain high in the coming weeks, with Standard Chartered predicting that it will establish a new historical maximum for the end of this quarter.
“Movements like the current one tend to last weeks or months,” Kendrick explained. “I think it lasts at least until the end of the second quarter, hence my prognosis of $ 120,000 for the second quarter.”
However, optimism does not end there, since Standard Chartered also reiterates its end of the year of $ 200,000, helped by profits during the summer.
As for today, Bitcoin has decreased 0.3% in the last 24 hours to be $ 94,979, while the cryptocurrency market as a whole has fallen by 2%.
Edited by Stacy Elliott.
