The Argentine bonds were the ones that rose the most throughout the world for 2024 and, although in 2025 they have been suffering moderate correction, the country risk is currently in 726 points, well below the 1,907 that were observed as of December 31, 2024. However, the Sovereign papers still have an interesting bullish margin (upside) that is revealed when compared to countries in the region.
A calculation carried out by the broker FACIMEX VALUES It allows to see what A 10 -year bonus issued by Argentina in dollars In the International market It could rise 32.2% if it reaches a similar performance to that of Brazilian bonds and 20.3% if it reaches An internal return rate (IRR) like that of Colombian bonds. ”
See more: Government defines again approval project and accelerates key investment tender
Argentine long -term dollars have a CCC global S&P credit rating, while those in Brazil are BB (6 steps more than Argentina) and Colombia BB+ (7 more steps).
Argentine bonds versus bonds from comparable countries
The Facimex Values report mentions how much the entire Argentine curve could rise in case of convergence to yields from similar countries. In this regard, the following stands out upside:
- GD29: +13.3% if it goes to Colombia and +11.5% if you go on as Brazil.
- GD30: it would rise 15.8% if it goes on like Colombia and 15% if you go on as Brazil.
- GD35: upside of 20.3% if it converges to Colombian yields and 35.8% if it converges to Brazilian yields.
- GD38: It would rise 20.4% if Argentina went on like Colombia and 32.2% if they went on as Brazil.
- GD41: 19.4% of upside Faced with a convergence with Colombia and 38.7% against a convergence with Brazil.
- Gd46: 17.4% of Upside If it is converged with Colombia, 35.7% if it is converged with Brazil.
Source: Facimex Values..
As for the methodology used to carry out the calculation, the facimex economist values, Tobias Pejkovichhe explained: “First we take the performance curves of the different countries. With the IRR and data modified duration From each sovereign bonus of each country we make an estimate of the parameters of the curve of each country. With those parameters we calculate the modified duration and the theoretical tir that the global ones would have, adapted to the curve of that country; which in turn allows us to build a theoretical price. We compare that theoretical price against the current price. There you have the direct return if Argentina converges to a given country. There is no time effect. In short, this table reflects the upside direct if the global ones converge today to the curve of a certain country. “
Milei says that Argentina will be investment grade
“Argentina is one of the five countries that has financial balanceso, sooner or later, it will be investment grade”President Javier Milei said about the end of his exhibition before the Expoefi Finance Congress. The investment grade implies reaching a credit rating regarding the issuance of low -risk debt debt of default.
In line with these words, the president said that “The country risk has to collapse“.
See more: Milei: “Soon or earlier Argentina is going to be investment grade”
He country risk It is an indicator that measures the probability that a country does not comply with its external debt obligations. It is calculated as the Difference between the performance of the sovereign bonds of that country and the United States Treasury Bondswhich are considered risk -free. The higher the country risk, more expensive and difficult it is to the country to finance. It depends mainly on factors such as tax deficitthe Payment capacitythe political stabilitylas International reserves and the Investor Trust.
