Approximately 7.5% of people with HIV in Spain do not know their serological status, A fact that is a significant risk in terms of new transmissions.
Now, an innovative HIV risk prediction model, generated by the biopharmaceutical company Gilead Sciences, identifies people at high risk of having HIV (calibrating the individual risk of each of them), thanks to a screening strategy directed in a certain area, thus reducing late diagnosis and avoiding new infections (one person with HIV can transmit the HIV virus to others to others four).
The model, called predictcould contribute significantly to the control of infection in Spain, reinforcing global efforts aimed at eliminating the HIV epidemic worldwide.
Gilead has counted for its development with Telomera as a technological partner and with a wide team of researchers, among which are experts in infectious diseases and HIV such as Dr. Miguel García-Deltoro, head of the Infectious Diseases Service of the University General Hospital of Valencia, and Dr. Arkaitz Imaz, Coordinator of the HIV Unit and Sexual Transmission Diseases of the University Hospital of Bellvitge, in Barcelona.
Analyzing only information about certain diseases previously diagnosed with a person, as well as age and sex at birth, the model It has demonstrated its ability to detect more than 70% of HIV cases of any population, screening less than 4% of people and achieving a prevalence of HIV of more than 2.5%.
These results show the opportunity to optimize the use of health resources, reducing the number of people to whom it is necessary to perform an HIV test, while increasing the percentage of new diagnoses and, with it, the efficiency of the health system.
For Luis Armenteros, director of the HIV unit of Gilead Sciences in Spain and Portugal, «this development is another demonstration of Gilead’s commitment to people with HIV. Our company has been present since its inception in the great milestones of this epidemic and we continue to be, providing innovative solutions to address the still current challenge of HIV hidden infection and its late diagnosis ».
This advance is a crucial step in the early detection of HIV, an infection with which it is estimated that 11,000 people live together (7.5% of people with HIV in our country, as we said at the beginning) without knowing it.
In addition, late diagnosis, which in 2023 was present in 49% of the new cases – is associated with a greater progression of infection, an increase in health costs as well as greater morbidity and mortality.
The main challenge
As José Luis Enríquez, CEO and founder of Telomera describes, ««The model arose from a real clinical concern: many HIV diagnostic opportunities are being lostespecially in advanced phases of infection. The main challenge is to identify people with HIV who had gone unnoticed in the health system ».
The HIV risk prediction model It has been generated so that it can be integrated into electronic medical systemsthus allowing the automation of the care process so that it is the computer system that can alert the clinician who serves a person with a high risk of having HIV, reducing the lost opportunities of diagnosis and improving the efficiency of the health system.
Predict is a great advance since, as Dr. Imaz points out, «the results of these initial studies indicate that they may be able to identify candidates to do the HIV test very efficiently since allows focusing the highest risk groups in which the prevalence would be, according to the model, very high ».
