Mexico, among the winners of the international stage

Julio Gutiérrez

La Jornada newspaper
Friday, May 2, 2025, p. 19

The country is in conditions If this year’s economic activity weakens, says Felipe García Ascencio, general director of Santander Mexico. One of the keys to achieve this, he adds, is the fiscal discipline that has been inherited from the previous government and the autonomy with which the bank of Mexico (BDEM) has worked.

Even with the uncertainty that prevails in the world for the new business policies of the United States, Mexico looks as one of the winners And show this is the strength of the peso with respect to the dollar, despite the constant threats of tariffs, he details in an interview with The day With regard to the 88 Banking Convention, which will be held next week in Nuevo Vallarta, Nayarit.

For the manager of the Bank of Spanish origin, the economic policies that the government of President Claudia Sheinbaum reveals little by little, which seek to resume the path of growth, are Very well received by local investors and also by foreigners.

“We saw a first quarter with good growth in credit demand, practically in all segments where we participate, although there is a marked deceleration, particularly in consumption.

“On the investment side, both local and foreign plans are being postponed a lot … They do not know what tariffs are going to be, they do not know how big the impact will be.

– At this time, which has more weight, internal or external factors?

– Ahorita, on the balance, probably a little more external factors, because everyone is seeing what is happening in the world with tariffs and what is being the impact on the exchange rate or in the rates.

– To remove the external issue, what do your national and foreign clients tell them about the situation in the country?

–The comments we have heard about the new administration are good in the sense that they see a very proactive team, wants to resume the path of growth with a plan. As soon as a little more detail is missing in terms of projects that could detonate this investment in infrastructure, energy, water and ports that help us grow.

“What suits Mexico is trying to agree with the United States and Canada as soon as possible, naturally with the least possible amount of rates and not only do that, but also open other markets. We are close to signing an agreement with the European Union, I think it would be a good way to diversify.

The Mexico Plan and diversifying other countries where we can sell our goods, all this helps us to be a little less vulnerable. But clearly most of our exports go to North America, (EU) is the first with which we must be in good condition, in good terms.

–Trump talks about medicines to remedy evils, for Mexico, tariffs are a medicine or evil?

– Well, for us it is a medicine that hurts us, because it will not remedy us an evil. It is a medicine that is taking the United States, because what they are looking for is to close the deficit they have with each country.

– As a bank director, did you like the Government to look more at this time? What is needed?

– The truth is that there is a very good dialogue with the current administration. We speak at all times with them directly and also in a trade union way.

What the government is doing is very good, it is very directed and the more details we have, and the more we can do … we as a guild to channel the resources of the savers to help the country and resume economic growth, we all go on the right track.

– Is there greater opening of this government to the private sector?

-We have seen a very good opening of this government, there are public-private associations. There were also with the last government. It is starting a new six -year cycle, they have announced secondary energy laws. They have announced which are the priority areas for the Mexico Plan and others.

– At this moment it seems that the word recession is in fashion, do you foresee a recession in Mexico?

– Yes, there is a risk of an economic recession. If you see the surveys made by Banco de México, its own estimates, it is clear that the economic growth forecast has come down. We are right now in estimated growth of between zero and one percent, but they come clearly.

–Particular, how is the banking business going? There are reductions to the interest rate, but banks have historical profits.

– On the one hand it is true that the rates have been falling. To the extent that the rates are lowered, the cost of money is lowered, that is something good for the population, it is not a good thing for banks because it is part of the business, but it is good for the financial system that there is a lower level of rates.

It is clear that from an upward cycle we now come to a cycle where rates are being reduced. That should normally press the profits of banks a bit. On the other hand, we still see credit for credit, but it begins to decelerate in some segments.