Unlike the estimates made by other agencies, the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) was more optimistic about the growth that the Mexican economy will have in 2025 by projecting an advance of up to 2 percent.
Only the weekend, the “survey on the expectations of specialists in economics of the private sector of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico)” showed that the national gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 0.2% in 2025, also affected by inflation that will tend to go up.
It was even the fifth occasion when this agency cut the prognosis of GDP for Mexico, in the middle of a scenario of uncertainty and imposition of tariffs by the United States.
However, this Monday, at Mañanera conference, the head of the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), Edgar Amador Zamora, said that, for this year, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could be raised by additional 0.7% each year if the strategy to strengthen the domestic market is completed.
This, in turn, would result in the generation of 700,000 annual jobs, a sustained increase in vehicle production and the consolidation of the sector as the engine of regional growth and integration.
Specifically, the official announced a strategy to enhance economic growth and employment in Mexico, where government purchases will be sought by 10%, the replacement of 10% manufacturing imports, a direct stimulus to domestic demand and strengthening national suppliers.
In addition, he said that the strategy to increase national content seeks to influence different GDP variables, which could generate an estimated impact on seven tenths.
“If we achieve a 10% increase in government purchases, which are about 11% of GDP taking all government orders; if we manage to replace 10% manufacturing imports, which represent 20% of GDP in Mexico, which is one of the manufacturing powers of the world; social programs are 2.3% of GDP; and the strengthening of national suppliers.”
“The estimated impact, in a preliminary way, we could add seven tenths, 0.7% to the economy of the annual GDP,” he said.
Others estimate less or no progress in 2025
The panorama for the economy and inflation in Mexico does not look at all encouraging towards the remainder of the year, since it is estimated that there will be less growth and prices will remain up.
According to the survey on the expectations of specialists in economics of the private sector of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) corresponding to the month of May, the forecast of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Mexico was cut for the fifth occasion, in the middle of a scenario of uncertainty and imposition of tariffs by the United States.
Specifically, the analysts consulted expect GDP to advance 0.2% in 2025, when in the previous survey the projection was 0.5 percent.
Similarly, they also reduced their forecasts by 2026, as the prognosis of GDP for that year went from 1.6% to 1.5 percent.
“By 2025, the specialists gave this time the most probability to the interval of 0% to 0.4%; by 2026, the analysts decreased the probability granted to the interval of 1.5% to 1.9%, this interval being that the most probability continued to assign,” said the Banxico in his survey.
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