The growth of Mexico’s economy in the first quarter of 2025, through the timely data of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), “cheated” the markets, markets, since the main indicators of domestic demand, consumption and investment, continue to deteriorate.
According to unstacilities of the national Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), The monthly indicator of private consumption in the internal market fell 0.72% at annual rate last February.
This decrease in the indicator of domestic demand, that measures the expense that homes do in the consumption of goods and servicesit was the third consecutive decrease.
The key indicators of aggregate demand (investment and consumption) showed a slight improvement, but notorious weakness between the components inside considering the risks of the national and external economic environment
Report Monex.
Consumption, in doubt
In fact, The monthly indicator of private consumption did not present three consecutive falls since the first months of 2021situation that is alarming to be the largest component of Mexico’s economy (71% of national GDP).
The Mexican economy continues to face a complex environment. Although the growth of GDP in the first quarter was marginally positive, recession risks persist. The main risks for consumption continue to be the weak labor market, public insecurity, the high interest rate, inflation pressures and the high uncertainty
Banco Baseo points out.
-The financial group maintains its projection of a 1.2% growth for private consumption in 2025, compared to 2.7% in 2024. if so, would imply a significant deceleration of the main component of GDPwhich keeps the probability of recession in Mexico high for this year.
Internal demand, in suspense
Meanwhile, gross fixed capital formation, which allows to know the behavior of investment in fixed assets in the short termdecreased 6.01% annually in the second month of 2025, its sixth low the thread.
The investment remains one of the most affected items. We hope it is a ballast for growth for much of the year (…) Commercial uncertainty has stopped certain investment ads. However, it is striking that there is no record of cancellation of investments to date, according to the Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard
Details Banorte.
Another factor to consider, delve specialists, It is the infrastructure government spending and the role of private initiative in the mixed investment figureafter President Claudia Sheinbaum said that responsibility and risk are sought.
In this context, The federal government has kept the Mexico Plan as its road map for industrial policywhose rethink is to accelerate the infrastructure government spending and give greater participation to private, maintaining the goals in the attraction of investment and minimizing the commercial deficit with China.
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