Mexico travels by a 2025 marked by uncertainty. In spite of the official efforts to transmit confidence, the economic data and the diagnoses of International organizations have a complex panorama: decrease in GDP, contraction in key sectors, fall in investment and an adverse global environment. The word that is most heard in economic media and forums is inevitable: recession.
The International Monetary Fund estimates a GDP drop of -0.3% for this year. The World Bank speaks of absolute stagnation. Fitch Ratings and Citi confirm that Mexico is already in technical recession after two consecutive contraction quarters. And although the Ministry of Finance defends a growth of between 1.5% and 2.3%, that optimism does not find anchor in productive investment or business confidence.
The true trigger for this crisis is external, but its effects are amplified by internal errors. The commercial war promoted by the US government has imposed severe tariffs on Mexican products, particularly affecting the automotive and manufacturing sector. However, the national reaction has been warm: instead of an aggressive stimulus plan, the official discourse is limited to denying the diagnosis of experts and relying on the resilience of the domestic market.
Nearshoring, called to be the lifeguard of Mexico, faces a paradox: the historical opportunity to attract investments is fogged by political and commercial uncertainty. Companies that contemplated settle in Mexican territory now doubt the changing rules, legal insecurity and institutional fragility.
Meanwhile, private consumption – which sustained growth in 2024 – begins to resent. Gross fixed investment falls. Formal use slows down. Inflation, although controlled, can rebound if the exchange rate is depreciated by geopolitical fluctuations.
Mexico needs clarity. The government must abandon denialism and seriously assume the risks facing the economy. Fiscal fiscal measures, incentives for private investment, institutional strengthening and more effective economic diplomacy to counteract regional protectionism are required.
History shows that recessions can be short or long, but their depth will depend on the response given today. What is at stake is not only the growth of 2025, but the country’s ability to sustain its competitiveness and well -being in an increasingly hostile international environment. Showing the word “recession” does not avoid the problem. Recognize it and act, yes.
CPC, LD and Mi Gilberto Soto
Twitter: @gilsoto70
Facebook: Gilberto Soto
Related news :