Taking into account several factors at stake, the fertilizer market is expected to face another challenging year, particularly in the case of nitrogen and phosphate products.
Susan Reidy | Utrecht, Netherlands | world-grain.com | The whole field | The global fertilizer prices have had an upward trend in 2025, which reduces affordability and erodes the purchasing power of farmers, according to a report by Raboresearch.
“The Astilizantes Asequibility Index of Raboresearch indicates a transition between cycles, going from a period of relative affordability to one in which fertilizers are less affordable and the index becomes negative ”Said Bruno Fonseca, a senior analyst for agricultural supplies from Raboresearch.
“We hope that this unfavorable scenario for the fertilizer market persist throughout the year “he added.
Taking into account several factors at play, The fertilizer market is expected to face another challenging yearparticularly in the case of products based on nitrogen and phosphatewarned the analyst.
He added that “farmers will fight with the reduction of the purchasing power of these nutrients, which may not be immediately in demand cuts in 2025, but the negative affordability index indicates that such reductions will occur eventually.”
Need for fertilizers.
Fertilizer needs remain stable in regions such as Africa, Australia, South America, Europe and the United Statesdespite geopolitical uncertainty.
India It has been a constant buyer in the fertilizer market. However, seasonal demand has decreased and stocks have been exhausted, according to the study. As a result, market activity has decreased and buyers have adopted an approach to wait and see.
The supplies of some nutrients, such as phosphates, are still limited Due to changes in the global dynamics of the main actors and China’s exports restrictions, said Fonseca. These restrictions are also affecting nitrogen fertilizers.
“We hope that China resume exports in the second half of 2025once the domestic demand decreases after the dressing requests are completed, ”he added.
A market with uncertainties.
Markets and farmers face uncertainties From all directions, with different feelings in basic products markets.
He corn market It has an important one Alcista potential price due to the shortage of world stocks and a decrease of several years in the stock-useful relationship. Soy It is located at the other end of the price spectrum, since the prospects for a record harvest in Brazil and the decrease in the soy exports of the United States to China paint A bearish scenario for prices of soybeans, according to the study.
Las tariff threats are the main problem. It is expected that tariffs and ongoing commercial conflicts weigh on the prices of agricultural products, which have been depressed during the last two years.
“We have warned for a long time that American producers will be the ones who suffer the most with the new tax tariffs.”Said Fonseca. “Ultimately, the economy of supply and demand and the price of marginal tons will be relevant. During the last year or more, Changes in policies have caused shortage, which has resulted at higher prices of US fertilizers compared to world marketsand this trend can continue in the future. However, corn, soybean and wheat markets continue to quote within the range established in the summer of 2024, despite all market volatility and the bearish feeling, and the increase in volatility offers opportunities for all. ”
The supplies of some nutrients, such as phosphates, are still limited Due to changes in the global dynamics of the main actors and China’s export restrictions. These restrictions They are also affecting nitrogen fertilizers.
“We hope that China resume exports in the second half of 2025, once domestic demand decreases after dressing applications are completed,” Fonseca concluded.
Cover photo, bulk vessel | Rabobank
Susan Reidy article in cereals in the world
