With the tariff challenge launched to the world of what is the first power, the United States has put in a delicate situation the leaders of the entire globe. Before them two great options open: go to war and, as the Chinese government said yesterday, “fight until the end”; Or seek, as proposed by the president of the European commission, Ursula von der Leyen, a negotiated solution in a conflict whose consequences can be disastrous for millions of people. As proclive as trade to warlike similes, it should be remembered, in these moments of bravuces, chest blows and great statements, that in a war everyone loses.
On Monday, Brussels proposed a zero rate in industrial products between the European Union and the United States. A first conciliatory step that, however, does not imply a resignation to the countermeasures that Brussels prepares, but that von der Leyen has not yet wanted to reveal. Nor a possible change of course: the president of the commission made her call to the conciliation from Samarcanda, emblematic city of the Silk route, that through which trade between China and the Mediterranean passed. The choice of the place is not trivial: if the traditional ally of the old continent is willing to go to war, we must look for alliances in other places. And the logical turn is towards the East.
Decades on television and a few years in the White House show that the president of the United States, Donald Trump, operates under an aggressive business logic, either in his business or at the head of the Executive: first he grabs his arm and then shake hands. And he ends up selling that handful of fingers as a victory against his electorate. The tariff ordago is its greatest challenge to date, and it does not seem to be intimidated because the bags sink or by a spiral of measures and countermeasures of their rivals (many of them ancient allies).
But experience shows that Trump can settle for pacts far from his intended initial aspirations. For all these reasons, sitting at the negotiating table – with all the caution due – is a necessary step before launching to battle. Without forgetting, however, that as true that it can be that old axiom according to which in the war they all lose, some do more than others. You have to sit down to negotiate, yes, but firmly.
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