While most entertain with surveys, political chicanas and debates that change like the wind, in the markets Reales is cooking the true opportunity (or the true trap): the carry trade Argentinean. Today, bet on weights more than ever, but it is also playing in the cornice
Why do we talk about “alarms” on September 15 and 30? What can happen if the dollar It runs running or, on the contrary, is still ironing? Here, the map to understand the game before it starts.
The Carry Trade: Let’s go to the grain
With rates in pesos that exceed 80% per year and a government determined to contain the dollar As it gives rise to the October elections, the carry trade It is a temptation again for investors: sell dollars Today, invest in pesos, capture the rent, and repurchase more green tomorrow.
The projected yield: between 20% and 25% in pesos in just five months. Translated: between 10% and 12% in dollars. There is no fixed term or remunerated account that can compete with that. But, eye: it is not a trip to fall asleep in the Paraguayan hammock.
Why the alarms of September 15 and 30?
Because the mercado political and financial moves with logic of time bombs:
- September 15 is the last “safe” day before pure electoral volatility begins.
- September 30 is the line of last defense: after that date, the risk of exchange rate or desperate economic ads increases exponentially.
Exit between September 15 and 30 allows you to capture much of the profit without being trapped in the middle of the pre -election hurricane.
Possible scenarios: dollar Bajo vs. dollar alto
- Dollar below $ 1,000: it implies that the Government manages to contain expectations. He carry trade It will be a party: those who bet on weights will win strong. Probable final rally of bonds and actions.
- Dollar Above $ 1,500: crisis signal, capital leak or confidence collapse. He carry trade It becomes a guillotine for the unsuspecting. Those who left on time are protected; Those who do not cry on red balances.
Electoral consequences
- Dollar Under = official electoral competitiveness chances.
- Dollar uncontrolled = razed land politics and new cycle of uncertainty.
The art of not falling asleep in success
Argentina is not for warm or improvised: it is for those who understand that, in this country, sometimes, the true financial miracle lasts just a few months.
- September 15: First alarm.
- September 30: Departure limit.
He who is attentive will provide in October. He who falls asleep … will have to provide, but with water.
* Juan Pablo Chiesa He is a lawyer specialized in employment and public policies, writer, teacher and president of renovating aptitude.
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