After multiple disagreements, on April 30 Ukraine and the United States announced the signing of a agreement enshrined in the exploitation of Ukrainian natural resources. This document established the creation of a fund dedicated to the investment and reconstruction of the ravish country, funded by the mineral and energy resources based in Ukraine.
In truth, the father of the idea was President Zelensky, who in 2024, sought to ensure an alliance that did not have the support of the then republican candidate Donald Trump. After the triumph, and faithful to its economically profitable agreements policy, Trump monetized the continuity of the help policy of President Biden estimating a debt at US $ 350,000 million and claimed an exchange: payment of the debt for military aid with a participation in the riches of the Ukrainian subsoil.
In that line, Washington adopted a policy of weakening to Zelensky that reached a global theater on February 28 in the White House: in the jerky of the American power a president who with dignity knew how to defend the Ukrainian national cause was humiliated. In Moscow this scene was celebrated.
In a short time everything changed. Internally, Trump’s image deteriorated and his fall was graphic in various surveys: a survey for CNN showed an approval of 45% to its 100 -day management, while in the PEW Institute polls 49% of the population said the economy was weakened.
In this line, a broad survey of the Public Religion Research Institute is also noted: there it is indicated that only half of the white Christians approve of the Trump management, that 41% of the young people support it and that the Hispanic vote to Trump only reaches 27%. This deterioration surely includes the reprobation of the conflict of interests, which reported the New York Times, which involves a company of Crypto-monecas controlled by the Trump family.
A new reality also adds the growing differences between government members around non -lower issues. One of Trumpism’s foundational ideologues, Steve Bannon, publicly defines Elon Musk as a “defeated” man, while Waltz Security Minister has just resigned.
But above internal fractures, the factor that most influences the decisions of. Trump refers to an issue that associates the external and the internal: dollar and China. What does Trump intend: wants a weak dollar or a strong dollar? The publicized reindustrialization claims a weak dollar, but a strong dollar is necessary to cover the deficits and ensure the future of the hegemonic financial center. This dilemma reflects the state of a global economy organized around two axes: China the dominant manufacturing space and the US in the financial dimension.
In that new reality the Chinese challenge is ostensible: Trump has said that “he expects a phone call from Beijing”, referring to the global war around tariffs. As is known, President Xi did not call him and challenged him in a non -less issue: on April 4 China interrupted sales of “rare earth” to the US. It is about some almost unknown metals, which are essential in several sectors, particularly in defense and electronics.
Of those “lands”, which today disturb Trump’s plans, China extracts 70% and leads its transformation. In this labyrinth Trump faced Greenland first, but warned that this invasion- who proposes his hawks as vice president Vance- would finish consecrating the divorce with Europe and would not differentiate with Russia. In the search for options, the “exchange offer, help for rare earths” appeared by President Zelensky who has just closed transforming the global strategic map to the extent that the format of the Ukraine War could be mutating.
In parallel, the internal political context in the US cannot be ignored by Trump. A hundred days of government the advice of J. Carville, former Bill Clinton’s campaign advisor, are being quoted: he suggested to the Democrats “to make the dead”, shut up until the support for the president descended below 40%. The appeal for the intensive use of “executive orders”, a shortcut to avoid Congress, defamatory speeches and prices that American consumers must pay as a consequence of tariffs, will be felt.
This new context explains the agreement signed by Ukraine. There were no options, Europe is not yet trained to replace the United States as guarantors of their safety. Times condition the agenda and NATO needs a reset. The state of Russian threat cannot be extended, more than reforms are needed. Europeans must invest time and resources to face predatory powers, in a context of historical acceleration and competition between imperial projects.
The signing of the Ukraine/US Agreement is an example of what is coming. Ukraine is able to accompany this new agenda. According to the kyiv Institute of Sociology, in March the president’s trust rate reached 67%. Part of that capital was due to the humiliation he suffered in the White House. All Ukraine shared it. This society will favor for a while personalities associated with the defense of your country and the resistance to aggression.
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