Why Zelensky will not give up Crimea to achieve peace with Russia

In February 2014, when mysterious masked commands with unidentified green uniforms took the crime parliament and deployed throughout the peninsula, Vladimir Putin initially denied having anything to do.

Those “green little men” marked the beginning of the Russian war against Ukraine, which culminated in the large -scale invasion of 2022.

Crimea’s future is now at the center of the peace plan of US President Donald Trump and has led the Ukrainian leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, to rule out the recognition of Russian control over the Peninsula.

The exact terms of the Trump plan have not been published, but several information suggests that it would include legal recognition by the United States of Crimea’s belonging to Russia.

For Trump, Ukraine “lost this southern peninsula years ago and” it is not even part of the discussion “in peace conversations.

But for Zelensky, giving up Crimea as an indivisible part of Ukraine would be unacceptable.

In the words of the deputy of the opposition Iryna Gerashchenko, “territorial integrity and sovereignty are a red line for Ukraine and the Ukrainians.”

Trump said “yes [Zelensky] He wants Crimea, why didn’t they fight for her 11 years ago when he was delivered to Russia without shooting a single shot? “

The truth is that few shots were fired, but Crimea was taken at gunpoint during a power vacuum.

Putin later admitted the appropriation of the territory at a meeting that lasted all night with his officials days after Ukrainian’s pro -Russian leader, Víktor Yanukóvich, was overthrown in Kyiv.

For an American leader in a hurry to ensure a peace agreement, Crimea could become a great obstacle.

Trump is right that there are few chances of Ukraine recovering Crimea in the near future and, de facto, he is under Russian control. But that is far from recognizing that fact as legal.

Zelensky points out the “Crimean Declaration” of 2018 signed by Trump’s then Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo.

Pompeo said that the United States rejected “the attempt to annex crime by Russia” and promised to continue doing so until the territorial integrity of Ukraine was restored.

What Zelensky tries to say is that Trump supported Ukraine then, and should maintain that position on Crimea now.

If the United States recognizes as legal the appropriation of a territory of one State by the force of another, what would that mean for International law and the principles of the UN Charter?

Weeks after Russia’s large-scale invasion began in 2022, there was an initial proposal in Istanbul to park the issue, so that Russia and Ukraine tried to solve it in the next 10-15 years.

The idea was not consolidated, but it was a way to overcome that obstacle.

Zelensky was categorical in stating that he has no power to give up Crimea: “There is nothing to talk about here. This goes against our Constitution.”

Article 2 of the Constitution establishes that the sovereignty of Ukraine “extends throughout its territory” that “within its current border is indivisible and inviolable.”

Any change in the territory of Ukraine must undergo a national referendum that must be authorized by the Ukrainian Parliament.

It is not just the President Trump who has problems with Kyiv. Russia also sees the Ukrainian Constitution as an “obstacle” for peace efforts.

Constitutions can be changed, but that is not possible in Ukraine while the country is under martial law.

Approveing ​​the illegal annexation of Russia would not only cross a red line for Ukraine, but would lay a terrifying precedent for countries that border the black sea, such as Romania.

The implications of a precedent would feel far beyond the Black Sea.

For historical reasons, the Russians have considered Crimea for a long time as part of their territory and Putin has spoken of a “living and unwavering bond” with the peninsula, characterized by their spas in the Black Sea and its soft summer climate.

But Crimea, like the rest of Ukraine, voted for the independence of the disintegrated Soviet Union in 1991 and Kyiv allowed Russia to lease the port of Sevastopol as the basis for its black sea fleet.

After its annexation in 2014, Putin sought to consolidate Russia’s control over Crimea, first with a 19 -kilometer bridge built on the Kerch Strait in 2018 and then capturing a land bridge along the coast of the Azov Sea in 2022.

For him, it was about correcting perjucio caused to Russia in 1954, when the Soviet leader Nikita Jrushchov transferred Crimea to Ukraine. Putin believes that Russia was then “looted.”

The first annexation of Crimea by the Tsarist Russia occurred in 1783, in the reign of Catalina la Grande, and mostly was part of Russia until the decision of Jrushchov.

Russia and Ukraine were both Soviet republics, so it was not a big problem for Kremlin in 1954.

More than half of Crimea’s population was Russian, largely because the original population of Tartars of Crimea was deported under the Soviet dictator Stalin in 1944.

Tartar exiles could only return to Crimea as of 1989, when the Soviet Union collapsed, and now constitute about 15% of Crimea’s population.

Russia quickly organized a referendum in March 2014, but was rejected as a farce by the international community and the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution that supported Ukrainian sovereignty.

The International Criminal Court ruled that Russia’s activity in Crimea was equivalent to an “ongoing occupation.”

Refat Chubarov, president of Mejlis, an organism that represents the Tartars of Crimea, has insisted that Ukraine must categorically reject any territorial concession in exchange for peace.

“Crimea is the homeland of the indigenous people Tartaro and an integral part of Ukraine,” he said.

The details of the Trump peace plan are not yet known, but according to several reports and statements by US officials, it would be required that Ukraine accept other difficult conditions.

The Russian occupation of almost 20% of Ukraine would be de facto recognized behind the existing front lines, effectively freezing the conflict in four Ukrainian regions: Donetsk, Luhansk, Jersón and Zaporiyia.

According to the American media Axiosthat would be supported by a “solid security guarantee”, presumably supported by the “coalition of the willing” promoted by the British government and would include France and perhaps other European countries, but not to the United States.

The commitment not to admit to Ukraine in NATO would also be established, although it could join the European Union.

All American sanctions to Russia would be lifted and economic cooperation with the United States would be improved.

Axios He also suggests that Russia would return a small occupied Járkov area and allow Ukraine “step without obstacles” through the Dnieper River, while the United States would take care of the nuclear energy plant in Zaporiyia taken by Russia in 2022.

And then there is an agreement between the United States and Ukraine to share the profits of Ukrainian minerals, which is expected that Ukrainian prime minister Denys Shmyhal seals with the United States before Saturday.

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