The bench will once again exhibit muscle in the new round of presentation of results, which begins this Thursday with the Bankinter accounts corresponding to the first quarter of 2025. The entities are prepared to face the fall in interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainty with more benefit, but, despite a context that is complicated with the tariff war in the loan, analysts expect the entities For exercise. Of course, a caution message will be launched.
The main novelty of this results season is that it will be the first to reflect, in the year -on -year calculation, the sales rates executed in recent months by the European Central bank (ECB). After the last cut made last week, the price of money is in Europe at 2.25%, while a year ago it was 4%and at the close of the first quarter of 2023, in 3%. This will mean a decrease in the margin of interest, the line of income that includes the differences between the money they pay for the deposits and the one they charge for the loans. This effect has already been shown in the last quarters. For example, Caixabank recorded a 2% decrease in the fourth quarter with respect to the third, while in Santander geographic diversification allowed him to increase this figure 7% quarterly (in Spain he remained flat).
However, the market awaits that banks can compensate for cuts on this side with increases in commissions emoluments. In addition, at the general level, they have taken advantage of the previous interest rates to shield their swings business in the price of money. For example, they have increased the weight of the mortgages at a fixed type, reduced the expiration of the mortgage portfolios or thus managed their bond portfolios. They have also enhanced businesses such as investment funds or insurance, to increase those commissions income.
However, analysts expect great Spanish banks to improve their benefit figures in the quarter and exceed figures that a year ago constituted their historical records. According to the consensus of BloombergSantander, BBVA, CaixaBank, Sabadell and Bankinter will pocket about 7,150 million, almost 7% above that the 6.7 billion they won in the same period of the previous year. The rise in the first quarter of 2024 was 17%. The benefit improvements would even exceed 20% year -on -year in Sabadell or Bankinter and remain above 10% in BBVA and Caixabank. The first two would win 400 and 220 million, respectively; while the latter, 2,400 and 1,200 million. Santander would get about 3,000 million.
In addition, the bank will benefit in this first quarter of a government gift, due to the new design of the sector tax. On the one hand, the progressive nature of the rate causes some entities such as Bankinter or Sabadell to pay a smaller rate, while the big ones (Santander, BBVA and CaixaBank) will pay more. On the other, the previous tribute forced to be completely paid in the first quarter of the year, while the new one can be distributed throughout the year, which will make banks save an extraordinary payment in this first quarter.
All this with the delinquency and the provisions contained, in a scenario in which the macroeconomy still does not solivia the accounts of the entities. Beyond the figures, analysts and investors will monitor the messages that will send the domes of the banks on their forecasts of the year at a time of great economic uncertainty derived from the tariff war aggravated by Donald Trump at the beginning of the month. The uncertainty about the evolution of the fray will cause banks not to substantially alter their benefits forecasts, but that they throw messages of caution.
Broadly speaking, the guideline that the president of Banco Santander, Ana BotÃn, during the Bank Shareholders Board will be followed. The banquera maintained all the objectives designed by the entity in the presentation of the annual results, in the month of February. Specifically, the bank plans to close the first quarter with a profitability (measured as rotation, profitability on tangible capital) of 15.7%, in line with the objectives of the bank, which go through reaching 16.5% for the end of the year. At the same time, it plans to register a solid advance in capital in this first quarter, by increasing the CET 1 ratio fully loaded (The one that measures the capital of the highest quality) from the 12.8% to which it closed in 2024 to 12.9%. The objective of the bank is to place in 13% and give back the shareholder with shares of shares everything that exceeds that level, so that it hopes to pay its shareholders 10,000 million euros in repurchases in 2025 and 2026 for the distribution of the excess capital and 50% of the benefit generated in each year. It also predicts to bring the income figure to 62,000 million, with an increase in commissions to a medium high digit (between 7% and 9%), as well as reduce the cost base.
In purity, the entities are more affected by the decisions made by the central banks with respect to the interest rates than to the purpose of the commercial war itself, given that the financial activity is not likely to be taxed with tariffs on the importation of goods. Another issue is the resistance capacity that they have before an eventual recession unleashed by commercial tensions, which would not be reflected in the benches of the banks until several quarters.
The evolution of currencies deserves a separate chapter. The geographical diversification of Santander and BBVA seemed like a shield of these two entities before a scenario of downward interest rates, due to the greater profitability of markets in which they are present, such as Mexico or Brazil. Some of these as Mexico are more exposed to the US economic march, as well as the strength of the euro can damage revenues aimed at Spanish business matrices in other currencies.
Faced with this, the Spanish economy shows greater strength, as demonstrated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by leaving Spain as the only great economy outside its cut in the growth forecast. For the US, the reduction is 0.9 points and for Mexico of 1.7. On paper, this will benefit the entities with the most concentrated business in Spain, such as CaixaBank, Sabadell or Bankinter.
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