Few regions on the planet are as volatile and are as militarized as Kashmir. Insert in the middle of the Himalayas and surrounded by three nuclear powers (India, Pakistan and China), the territory has long been source of disputes and unresolved territorial ambitions.
That volatility was expressed with all its magnitude this week. On Tuesday, April 22, 2025, militiamen attacked a group of tourists in the Kashmir area controlled by India, leaving at least 26 people dead and wounding dozens more, in the worst assault on civilians in that region in years. India described what happened as a terrorist attack and blamed for what happened to Pakistan.
Why is it important
The Kashmir region covers about 222,200 square kilometers, an extension similar to that of Romania. The territory, in which strategic, economic and religious interests converge, is divided between India, Pakistan and China, but is in full claimed by both India and Pakistan. The region houses about 20 million inhabitants, of which about 14.5 million live in the area administered by India, about 6 million in the sector under Pakistan control and a few thousand in the Chinese area.
The modern history of Kashmir conflict dates back to 1947, when British India was divided into two: India, Hindu majority, and Pakistan, of Muslim majority. What today constitutes the territory of the union of Jammu and Kashmira – part of the widest region of Kashmir – was governed at that time by Maharajá Hindu Hari Singh, who initially refused to be part of one of the two countries.
That changed after Pakistani guerrillas tried to seize the region and overthrow it. The result was the first war between India and Pakistan, when Maharajá sought help from India to face the invaders and change agreed to give their princely state to New Delhi.
Pakistan’s claim on Kashmir is based, among other things, on the statement that the region, with most Muslim, should have become part of the Pakistani territory at the time of the partition of British India. India, on the other hand, argues that the adhesion instrument signed by Hari Singh makes the Indian claim legitimate and definitive. But the jurists question the validity of a document signed under coercion.
The third in row: China
Although India and Pakistan are the protagonists of this story, China also has a strategic piece of the puzzle. In the northeast part of the region, Shaksgam and Aksai Chin are administered by the Asian giant, but claimed by India. While the Shaksgam valley is barely inhabited due to its difficult geography, Aksai Chin is crucial for terrestrial connectivity between Tibet and the western region of Xinjiang.
China established its control over Aksai Chin in the 1950s through the construction of a road that linked Xinjiang with Tibet, crossing a territory claimed by India. This country opposed the Chinese presence in the area, and the tensions intensified until the brief but intense Chinese-Indian war of 1962. After that conflict, China retained the control of Aksai Chin and has administered it since then. In recent years, Beijing has expanded its military presence along the disputed real control line, aimed at demarcating the border between China and India, which has led to frequent clashes between troops of both sides.
Will another crisis unleashed?
It is believed that India maintains more than 750,000 soldiers in Jammu and Kashmir, forces that are mainly concentrated in the Kashmir Valley, of Muslim majority. Pakistan, meanwhile, is parked about 120,000 military along the control line that separates its Indian regions. Throughout the region, Islamabad would have deployed about 230,000 men.
Insurgent groups add another layer of complexity to the stage. The armed insurgency in the Kashmir administered by India, which began in the late 1980s, has been based on a combination of local discontent and external support. India accuses Pakistan of supporting radical groups, something that Islamabad rejects.
In response to the attack against tourists, India took a series of measures, including the degradation of diplomatic relations, the closure of terrestrial and aerial borders and the suspension of the 1960 Indus Water Treaty, which governs the distribution of the waters of that river system. Pakistan had previously warned that any interference in the functioning of said treaty could be considered an “act of war.”
This has led to an increase in speculation about a possible military escalation, echoing the tensions of 2019, when a suicide attack in pulwama killed 40 Indian soldiers. That time, India responded with air attacks against Pakistani territory, putting both countries on the verge of war.
That same year, India revoked article 370 of its Constitution, stripping Jammu and Kashmir of his special autonomy. The measure, condemned by Pakistan, caused riots in the region. Since then, the tension has remained at high levels, to the point that another conflict remains a certain possibility in the area.
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