The flexibility of the stocks and the implementation of flotation bands configured a new monetary and exchange scheme. In this scenario, the government He defended the “session” of the economy without the purchase of reservations and described as “virtuous process” the “recovery of the demand for money” and the “credit to the private sector” after the decrease in inflation in recent months.
It was in a message that Federico Furiasedirector of the BCRA and direct advisor to Minister Luis Caputo, shared in his X (Ex-Twitter) account, where he explained why The government decides not to intervene within the flotation band (Buy dollars and deliver pesos), but turn pesos to the market when, in Treasury debt tenders do not renew all maturities.
“In dynamic general equilibrium, remoteization is not perfect substitutes via the treasure returning weights in primary tenders against debt cancellation and monetization via BCRA dollars on the band of the band, “he wrote Furiasewho referred again to ‘Punto Anker’.
That concept, which refers to the name of the consultant founded by Caputo and Bausili, where he also worked furiased, refers to a scenario in which, for the growth of credit in pesosbanks demand less Treasury Debt Titles and their instruments do not renew To have more liquidity to deliver loans to companies or families.
The discussion to which Furiase made reference was extended in the last week, after The government did not renew all the debt that overcome in its last tender (covered 70%) e will inject about $ 2.4 billion to the market. In turn, a $ 11.7 billion turned was announced to the Treasury account in the BCRA, based on “profits” generated by the monetary authority in its balance of 2024.
Furiase’s approach seeks to explain and justify why the government Choose the economy “to” remunerate “through this mechanism And not do it in the exchange market, with the BCRA adding reservations, until the dollar eventually reaches the lower floor of the flotation band.
“Reonicalization via treasure returning pesos in tenders primary against cancellation of debt reflects an excess demand for weights (liquidity)/excess supply of public titles of banks (“Anker Point”) consisting of real endogenously positive rates, derived from a virtuous inflation collapse process, Low of nominal rates and recovery of the money demand/credit of the private sector, given the wide monetary base, ”said the economist.
“The remoteization via BCRA dollars on the band of the band It is the consequence of an excess demand of pesos/supply of dollars, given the macro foundations, the sanitation of the expected stocks and flows, ”he added Furiasewho justified that the non -renewal of maturities in the last tender It is associated with a decision of financial entities to add exposure to the private sector (give loans to companies or families) and have less active public sector (treasure debt).
It is a process that in financial jargon is defined as ‘crowding-in’, opposite to ‘crowding-out’, where treasure financing needs remove available resources for credits to the private sector.
“The discussion is why the economy is monetized by disarmament of positions in pesos and not for the purchase of dollars in the band’s middle, because you are anyway expanding the amount of pesos”, dice a The nation The economist Gabriel Caamaño, head of Outlier.
“Traditionally, It was interpreted that remumding was buying currencies, because a demand that is more natural is validatedbecause there are those who are willing to sell dollars in exchange for pesos at that price. They stand out because The entire treasure debt is not renewed, And they are explaining why they do what they do, ”added the analyst.
And although credit recovery stands out (“It has been giving a long time and it was much of the remumination”), explains that this factor is not the only one that could explain the result of The last tender of treasure debt. “There was a regime change for the flexibility of the stockslace changes, the demand for liquidity may be more demand for banks or individuals … in fact, They offered him less than he won. Assigning that is arbitrary to justify a decision in the middle, ”adds Caamaño.
Furiase’s comment also generated answers among other economists. This is the case of Gabriel Rubinstein, former Vice Minister during the management of Sergio Massa, who wrote: “The rollover less than 100% in tenders could obey re -delighted Oa greater demand for dollars (not contemplated in your analysis) ”.
When analyzing the exchange policy and injection of pesos to the economy, the economist added: “You have to be careful: it could be against re -delighted, But also against dollar (as happened between April and July 2024), or simply, validate an even far away inflation from 0% (as it has been passing since July 2024 until now). ”
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