The mathematics of the conclave: the roof that limits the two favorites, the American cardinal who strengthens and the undecided

Rome.- The countdown began, there are less than 48 hours for the start of the conclave that must choose Francisco’s successor, but Pedro’s boat is still on the high seas.

In the most numerous and international Cardinals College in history, with 133 cardinals from 70 countries, 80% elected by Jorge Bergoglio, the drama is that they are not known. And while in Italian newspapers they insist that the great favorite, the best known candidate, is Pietro Parolin -The Secretary of State of Pope Francis, 70, skilled diplomatic considered the peaceful candidate, of order and unity after the revolution of the Argentine Pope-,, The faction of the undecided is stronger.

Y There is talk of other candidatessecond -line, ready to appear in the voting following the first scrutiny, the afternoon of May 7, which will be where the cards will begin to be seen.

While the Italian lobby wants to recover the papacy after 47 years of foreigners (John Paul II, Benedict XVI, Francisco) and continues to move at all pace, The threat is that the media offensive becomes a car. Not only for Parolin, but also, for the other two Italians considered papable: the archbishop of Bologna, Matteo Zuppi and the patriarch of Jerusalem, Pier Battista Pizzaballa.

“Although it is normal and we also saw it in 2013, That type of media campaigns in the end destroy the favorites Because the others prevent and organize, ”a Vatican Monsignor who requested anonymity told La Nacion.

“If you think that these campaigns do Parolin a favor, more inflate the thing, they create the organized opposition,” added the Prelate, who stressed that, beyond speculation, The climate that reigns in pre-cóclave meetings “is very spiritual and to search for the right person for this moment. ”

On the eve of the 2013 conclave that chose Jorge Bergoglio, who did not appear on the papable lists (except in that of the Nation), there was also an offensive in the Italian press in favor of the alleged favorite candidate, the Italian cardinal Angelo Scola. Fine theologian, archbishop of Milan (and Dolphis of Benedict XVI), Scola in the end entered Pope and came out cardinal, as well as his main rival, the Brazilian cardinal Odilo Scherer, archbishop of St. Paul. No one forgets the paper that then made the Italian Episcopal Conferenceminutes after the White smoked, sent a message of congratulations to Scola. The newspaper Happenfrom the CEI, had to throw a previously prepared edition dedicated to his choice to the Tacho. No one does not forget that after the White Smoking of March 13, 2013 -which indicated that a Pope had been elected, but spent more than an hour until it was learned that Jorge Mario Bergoglio was -, the bells of the church bells of Milan began to be played in party.

That is why now, less than 48 hours from the start of the conclave, Games seem to still open.

A “great disorientation” is perceived among the cardinals, many rookies and who do not speak Italian. And several analysts, making accounts, adding votes and seeing who would probably vote for who, they begin to think that, although in the first scrutiny Both Cardinal Parolin, and the other great favorite, the Filipino Luis Antonio “Chito” Tagle, could reap a good amount of votes, could not add many more. And that would be canceled each other, giving rise to other names.

Italian media say that Parolin has about 40 or 45 votes; and that there are many cardinals – including conservative American ones – and Asians, that They would never vote because they consider him responsible for the secret provisional agreement that the Holy See signed in September 2018 with China (communist giant with whom it does not maintain diplomatic relations) for the delicate issue of the designation of bishops. This agreement, which was later renewed, for many was a virtual betrayal of the Chinese Catholic clandestine church, which ended even more subject to the communist atheist autocracy of superpower.

Beyond this, the key fact is that The “magic number”, equivalent to two thirds of the 133 cardinals, 89, is at the moment unattainable for any favorite. It is an amount of votes that no one is about entry and that, if underground agreements of various chords, could appear in a second moment to impose second -line or covered candidates.

In this context, the name of the cardenal Robert Prevostalthough there are those who say that it is impossible for him to leave because he was born in Chicago and has an American passport, he could get to attract those who want to continue with the opening line and in favor of Francisco’s last.

“Prevost is not a Pope in the United States, he is a Latin Pope,” a source told La Nacion, stressing that this prelate that was head of the Augustinians lived more than 20 years in Peru, where he was first missionary and then Bishop of Chiclayo.

Pope Francis called him to Rome to lead the Dicas supplies for bishops – one of the most important Vatican ministries since January 2023, because it is the one that identifies many bishops from various parts of the world – and the Pontifical Commission for Latin America. Bajo profile man, the connoisseurs underline that one of the prestop’s advantages with respect to other “daddables”-like the French cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline or the Philippine, Pablo “Ambo” David-, is that Meet the Roman curia and “all its terrible defects”.

Although with him the taboo would be broken that there cannot be an American Pope, they emphasize that It would be a “anti-trump” popecapable of dealing with an American president who, days ago, through his social networks, sent a message seen in the Vatican almost as “gangster.”

“It was not a joke about Trump dressed as potatoes, but a clear and resounding message: care with whom they choose, I do not want opposition to my policies. That of that photo was not nonsense, but it was like saying ‘Be careful, I am watching them and I want a domesticated Catholic church,” explained a source.

“And not everyone can deal with that. Francisco recovered in this sense the freedom of the Church, which in the time of John Paul II and Benedict XVI was aligned to the United States, but with him, he was with the non -powerful, with the ‘bad’ – as Lula, Los Maduro, Los Petro, Gaza- and One of the challenges of the next Pope is to maintain this line and put a brake on Trumpsomething Prevost could do, ”he insisted.

“In addition, with Prevost, an American Pope, that hole in finance of 100,000 million dollars would be solved immediately because they would begin to rain donations of US billionaires,” added the same source.

In a climate of growing nerves, there was also talk of the Purpsed Filipino Pablo “Ambo” David66, Bishop of Kalookan, created by Francisco Cardenal in his last session of December last year, 66, very charismatic and known for his defense of human rights and the victims of the war on drugs launched by former president Rodrigo Duterte.

Also president of the Filipino Bishops and second of the Conference of Asian Bishops, according to Filtrations Cardinal David, who is polyglota, there would be pronounced a great impact intervention. “When John Paul II was elected in 1978, all analysts thought that the famous Polish candidate was Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński, as is now the Filipino Tagle. But Wyszyński caused the votes to give the unknown Karol Wojtyla, as Tagle could do with Cardinal David,” explained an expert.

In a very fluid, electrical environment, without certainties, the only clear thing was that the last hours will be crucial, definitive, especially in view of The faction of the undecided. Very wide because, obviously, the pro-Francisco cardinals did not organize in time, unlike the pro-part, papable that is presented as continuity, but that would imply a brake.

This Monday the cardinals first had two sessions of pre-Cóclave meetings: in the morning the afternoon. Then 46 Cardinals took the floor, said the director of the press room, Matteo Bruni.

Bruni, who confirmed that this Tuesday will take place the last general congregation – the twelfth – in the morning, said that before its beginning, if it is their wish, the 133 voters can leave their things in the residence of Santa Marta and Santa Marta Vieja, already conditioned for them for the conclave. Cardinal Camarlengo, Kevin Farrel, already made the draw of the rooms last Saturday, which will be isolated from all external influence. The cardinals who wish, can enter the next day, Wednesday, in time to participate in the Mass “Pro Choose Pontiff” that will take place at 10 in the Basilica of San Pedro.

Not only will they be housed in Santa Marta, New and old -two buildings that are next to each other -the 133 voters, but many more. All people who will help them will also be housed there to fulfill their duty, that is, the security personnel, two doctors, nurses, drivers, chefs, cleaning staff, the dining room, assistants, ceremonies, drivers, who will attend them during their isolation of this choice “Cum-Clave”, with a key, secret.

This is at least a hundred people among gendarmes, presbyters, laity, consecrated and others, Bruni explained. In a solemn ceremony in the Paolina chapel, they all swore against Cardinal Camarlengo “Observe the absolute secret with whom it is not part of the school of the voters, and this perpetually.”

In addition, they promised and swore, as indicated by the Universi Dominici Gregis Apostolic Constitution, refrain from any recording, hearing or vision instrument of what will happen during the election period. And with their hands on the Gospel, they declared the oath aware that “an infraction of it would entail for me the penalty of excommunication automatic reserved for the Apostolic Headquarters ”.